What if the world allocated to Bitcoin?
Follow the capital. Adjust the assumptions. Explore what retirement savings, sovereign funds and gold could imply for Bitcoin’s valuation.
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Build an allocation scenario
Allocation is the share of each participating portfolio held in Bitcoin. Participation is the share of assets whose owners adopt it, not the count of funds. For example, 5% allocation × 5% participation uses 0.25% of a pool. The three universes are alternatives and are never summed.
This is a conditional valuation, not a price floor. Market capitalization is not cash invested: purchases can move prices by more or less than the dollars spent. This model assumes a one-for-one valuation relationship and does not predict liquidity, selling, adoption timing or returns.
Where the modeled allocation comes from
| # | Pool | USD |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Other pensions (P22 less 401(k) & TSP) | $2.82T |
| 2 | US 401(k) plans | $540B |
| 3 | Federal Thrift Savings Plan | $60B |
| 4 | US corporate liquid assets | $0 |
| 5 | IFSWF participating sovereign funds | $0 |
How sensitive is the result?
Scale all modeled allocations together, holding participation, supply and the discount constant. 100% is your scenario; 200% doubles the allocation. This is sensitivity, not a forecast over time.
| Scale | BTC price |
|---|---|
| 0% | $0 |
| 25% | $40,655 |
| 50% | $81,310 |
| 75% | $121,964 |
| 100% | $162,619 |
| 125% | $203,274 |
| 150% | $243,929 |
| 175% | $284,583 |
| 200% | $325,238 |
Gold, above ground
222,600 tonnes · 2026-06-30. Reviewed WGC snapshot. Gold’s uses tell us who holds it; they do not identify which vault or country stores it. WGC categories are rounded and may not sum exactly.
| Holder / use | Tonnes | Share |
|---|---|---|
| Jewellery | 99,700 | 44.8% |
| Central banks | 39,000 | 17.5% |
| Bars & coins | 47,800 | 21.5% |
| Gold ETFs | 4,000 | 1.8% |
| OTC investment | 10,000 | 4.5% |
| Other uses | 22,100 | 9.9% |
World Gold Council stock estimates · updated quarterly; checked weekly. Dollar value uses the source’s quarter-end LBMA basis. Below-ground reserves are excluded.
Where is the gold stored?
Selected disclosed custody locations, not a world inventory or ranking. The US Treasury stores bullion at Fort Knox, West Point and Denver; Germany stores reserves in Frankfurt, New York and London. Country ownership and storage location are different: German gold in New York still belongs to Germany. Private jewellery and investment holdings do not have a comprehensive public custody register.
| Storage location | Owner | Tonnes | Reported / source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fort Knox, US | US Treasury | 4,583 | 2023-01-31 |
| West Point, US | US Treasury | 1,682 | 2023-01-31 |
| Denver, US | US Treasury | 1,364 | 2023-01-31 |
| Frankfurt, Germany | Bundesbank | 1,710 | 2025-12-31 |
| New York, US | Bundesbank | 1,236 | 2025-12-31 |
| London, UK | Bundesbank | 404 | 2025-12-31 |
Custody snapshots require editorial review; US Mint figures are explicitly dated January 2023 and should not be read as current audited balances. German figures are year-end 2025, rounded to tonnes. WGC official reserves by country is a separate ownership dataset, generally lagging by two months.
Source ledger & update policy
Balances change when their publishers release new reports. A recent check does not make an old observation current. These are reported asset values, not live account balances.
22 major markets, not every pension in the world. Includes US defined-contribution plans. Source · 2027-02-28 · annual editorial review · reviewed 2026-09-17
US employer-sponsored plans; already included in the pension universe. Source · Weekly automatic check · quarterly publications · reviewed 2026-09-17
Federal employee DC plan; separated from pensions. Not all US 401(k)s. Source · Weekly automatic check · quarterly publications · reviewed 2026-09-17
Fed broad liquidity measure for nonfinancial businesses; includes securities, not just cash. US only. Source · Daily automatic check · quarterly publications · reviewed 2026-09-17
Conservative $10T base: October 2025 release says participants exceed $10T, about 80% of global SWF assets. Not a complete global total. Source · 2026-10-31 · annual editorial review · reviewed 2026-09-17
SIFMA household universe, not global retail AUM. Alternative scenario because assets overlap with funds and retirement holdings. Source · 2027-08-31 · annual editorial review · reviewed 2026-09-17
How updates work
While this page is open, it requests market updates once per minute. The server caches Bitcoin for one minute, delayed gold futures for 15 minutes, Fed balances for one day, and ICI / WGC releases for one week. Checks are request-driven; an idle site makes no calls. Sources fail independently. Parsing failures retain a labeled reviewed snapshot; missing market prices stay blank. Annual studies and custody disclosures require editorial review at the dates above. Public endpoints can be delayed or rate-limited.
CoinGecko BTC · Yahoo gold futures. Scenario controls stay in your browser and are not stored or sent to providers. Pausing stops page refreshes; quotes still expire when stale.
Read the model
Each contribution = reported pool × participating share × Bitcoin allocation. Contributions are summed and reduced by your overlap discount. If enabled, the current Bitcoin capitalization is added. The resulting capitalization divided by Bitcoin supply gives the implied price.
The 21-million option is a fully diluted denominator, not today’s tradable supply. Lost coins do not change Bitcoin’s conventional market-cap supply. Retirement values mix reporting periods and definitions; subtracting 401(k)s and TSP avoids their obvious double count but is only an approximate reconciliation. Sovereign and corporate ownership can still overlap, which is why the discount is explicit.
Household assets and gold substitution are separate scenarios because stacking them with institutional portfolios can count the same wealth twice. Gold conversion holds the gold valuation fixed: it does not model falling gold prices as holders sell. No inflation or liquidity multiplier is silently applied.