Is the stock market overvalued against the economy?
The Buffett Indicator compares the value of the whole US stock market with the size of the US economy. See where it stands today against its long-run trend since 1951.
US stock market by the Buffett Indicator
Strongly overvalued
The US stock market is worth 263% of GDP, 77% above its long-run trend of 148%: +2.4σ. No quarter since 1951 sat further above its trend.
- Strongly undervalued
- Undervalued
- Fairly valued
- Overvalued
- Strongly overvalued
One standard deviation (σ) is 32% of the trend. Fairly valued is within one σ of the trend; overvalued or undervalued is one to two away; strongly is two or more.
Buffett Indicator · today263%Q2 2026 market value $83.05T moved with the Wilshire 5000 (75,293.09 → 77,593.60, Oct 9, 11:30 AM EDT, delayed) to $85.59T ÷ Q2 2026 GDP $32.56T
Stock market at the trend$48.26T−43.6% from today · trend 148% × Q2 2026 GDP
US GDP · Q2 2026$32.56TSeasonally adjusted annual rate · +6.3% on a year earlier
Since Q4 1951
Trend growth+1.8% a yearHow fast the trend line rises
Standard deviation±32%Of the trend
Lowest32%Q2 1982
Highest255%Q2 2026
Market value to GDP and its trend
Total US stock market value as a share of GDP at the end of each quarter, with its exponential trend and the lines one and two standard deviations either side. Between the ±1σ lines is fair value. On the log scale the trend is a straight line. Choose a line’s name under the chart to show or hide it.
| Quarter | Market value ÷ GDP | Trend | From the trend | Stock market value | GDP (annual rate) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q4 1951 | 41% | 40% | +0.1σ | $0.15T | $0.36T |
| Q1 1952 | 42% | 40% | +0.2σ | $0.15T | $0.36T |
| Q2 1952 | 44% | 40% | +0.3σ | $0.16T | $0.36T |
| Q3 1952 | 43% | 40% | +0.2σ | $0.16T | $0.37T |
| Q4 1952 | 39% | 41% | −0.2σ | $0.15T | $0.38T |
| Q1 1953 | 37% | 41% | −0.3σ | $0.14T | $0.39T |
| Q2 1953 | 34% | 41% | −0.5σ | $0.13T | $0.39T |
| Q3 1953 | 33% | 41% | −0.6σ | $0.13T | $0.39T |
| Q4 1953 | 37% | 41% | −0.3σ | $0.14T | $0.39T |
| Q1 1954 | 41% | 42% | −0.1σ | $0.16T | $0.39T |
| Q2 1954 | 45% | 42% | +0.2σ | $0.17T | $0.39T |
| Q3 1954 | 49% | 42% | +0.5σ | $0.19T | $0.39T |
| Q4 1954 | 49% | 42% | +0.5σ | $0.19T | $0.40T |
| Q1 1955 | 49% | 42% | +0.5σ | $0.20T | $0.41T |
| Q2 1955 | 54% | 42% | +0.8σ | $0.23T | $0.42T |
| Q3 1955 | 56% | 43% | +1.0σ | $0.24T | $0.43T |
| Q4 1955 | 56% | 43% | +0.9σ | $0.24T | $0.44T |
| Q1 1956 | 60% | 43% | +1.2σ | $0.26T | $0.44T |
| Q2 1956 | 57% | 43% | +1.0σ | $0.25T | $0.45T |
| Q3 1956 | 55% | 43% | +0.8σ | $0.25T | $0.45T |
| Q4 1956 | 58% | 44% | +1.0σ | $0.27T | $0.46T |
| Q1 1957 | 54% | 44% | +0.7σ | $0.25T | $0.47T |
| Q2 1957 | 58% | 44% | +1.0σ | $0.27T | $0.47T |
| Q3 1957 | 51% | 44% | +0.5σ | $0.25T | $0.48T |
| Q4 1957 | 52% | 44% | +0.5σ | $0.25T | $0.47T |
| Q1 1958 | 56% | 45% | +0.8σ | $0.26T | $0.47T |
| Q2 1958 | 59% | 45% | +1.0σ | $0.28T | $0.47T |
| Q3 1958 | 64% | 45% | +1.3σ | $0.31T | $0.49T |
| Q4 1958 | 65% | 45% | +1.4σ | $0.32T | $0.50T |
| Q1 1959 | 65% | 45% | +1.3σ | $0.33T | $0.51T |
| Q2 1959 | 66% | 46% | +1.4σ | $0.35T | $0.52T |
| Q3 1959 | 65% | 46% | +1.3σ | $0.34T | $0.53T |
| Q4 1959 | 69% | 46% | +1.5σ | $0.36T | $0.53T |
| Q1 1960 | 63% | 46% | +1.1σ | $0.34T | $0.54T |
| Q2 1960 | 64% | 46% | +1.2σ | $0.35T | $0.54T |
| Q3 1960 | 59% | 47% | +0.8σ | $0.32T | $0.55T |
| Q4 1960 | 68% | 47% | +1.4σ | $0.37T | $0.54T |
| Q1 1961 | 75% | 47% | +1.9σ | $0.41T | $0.55T |
| Q2 1961 | 74% | 47% | +1.8σ | $0.41T | $0.56T |
| Q3 1961 | 75% | 47% | +1.8σ | $0.42T | $0.57T |
| Q4 1961 | 75% | 48% | +1.8σ | $0.44T | $0.58T |
| Q1 1962 | 72% | 48% | +1.6σ | $0.43T | $0.59T |
| Q2 1962 | 54% | 48% | +0.4σ | $0.33T | $0.60T |
| Q3 1962 | 57% | 48% | +0.5σ | $0.35T | $0.61T |
| Q4 1962 | 69% | 48% | +1.3σ | $0.42T | $0.61T |
| Q1 1963 | 72% | 49% | +1.5σ | $0.45T | $0.62T |
| Q2 1963 | 74% | 49% | +1.6σ | $0.47T | $0.63T |
| Q3 1963 | 76% | 49% | +1.7σ | $0.49T | $0.64T |
| Q4 1963 | 71% | 49% | +1.4σ | $0.47T | $0.65T |
| Q1 1964 | 74% | 50% | +1.5σ | $0.50T | $0.67T |
| Q2 1964 | 75% | 50% | +1.6σ | $0.51T | $0.68T |
| Q3 1964 | 76% | 50% | +1.6σ | $0.53T | $0.69T |
| Q4 1964 | 78% | 50% | +1.7σ | $0.55T | $0.70T |
| Q1 1965 | 78% | 50% | +1.7σ | $0.56T | $0.72T |
| Q2 1965 | 74% | 51% | +1.4σ | $0.54T | $0.73T |
| Q3 1965 | 78% | 51% | +1.7σ | $0.59T | $0.75T |
| Q4 1965 | 81% | 51% | +1.8σ | $0.62T | $0.77T |
| Q1 1966 | 76% | 51% | +1.5σ | $0.61T | $0.80T |
| Q2 1966 | 72% | 52% | +1.2σ | $0.58T | $0.80T |
| Q3 1966 | 64% | 52% | +0.7σ | $0.52T | $0.82T |
| Q4 1966 | 66% | 52% | +0.8σ | $0.55T | $0.83T |
| Q1 1967 | 74% | 52% | +1.3σ | $0.63T | $0.84T |
| Q2 1967 | 76% | 52% | +1.4σ | $0.64T | $0.85T |
| Q3 1967 | 78% | 53% | +1.5σ | $0.68T | $0.87T |
| Q4 1967 | 81% | 53% | +1.6σ | $0.71T | $0.88T |
| Q1 1968 | 72% | 53% | +1.1σ | $0.65T | $0.91T |
| Q2 1968 | 78% | 53% | +1.4σ | $0.73T | $0.93T |
| Q3 1968 | 77% | 54% | +1.3σ | $0.73T | $0.95T |
| Q4 1968 | 87% | 54% | +1.9σ | $0.84T | $0.97T |
| Q1 1969 | 81% | 54% | +1.5σ | $0.80T | $0.99T |
| Q2 1969 | 77% | 54% | +1.3σ | $0.77T | $1.01T |
| Q3 1969 | 72% | 55% | +1.0σ | $0.74T | $1.03T |
| Q4 1969 | 68% | 55% | +0.7σ | $0.71T | $1.04T |
| Q1 1970 | 64% | 55% | +0.5σ | $0.68T | $1.05T |
| Q2 1970 | 51% | 55% | −0.3σ | $0.54T | $1.07T |
| Q3 1970 | 58% | 56% | +0.2σ | $0.63T | $1.09T |
| Q4 1970 | 65% | 56% | +0.5σ | $0.70T | $1.09T |
| Q1 1971 | 68% | 56% | +0.7σ | $0.77T | $1.14T |
| Q2 1971 | 67% | 56% | +0.6σ | $0.78T | $1.16T |
| Q3 1971 | 65% | 56% | +0.5σ | $0.77T | $1.18T |
| Q4 1971 | 69% | 57% | +0.7σ | $0.82T | $1.19T |
| Q1 1972 | 71% | 57% | +0.8σ | $0.87T | $1.23T |
| Q2 1972 | 69% | 57% | +0.6σ | $0.88T | $1.27T |
| Q3 1972 | 69% | 57% | +0.6σ | $0.89T | $1.29T |
| Q4 1972 | 78% | 58% | +1.1σ | $1.03T | $1.33T |
| Q1 1973 | 70% | 58% | +0.7σ | $0.97T | $1.38T |
| Q2 1973 | 64% | 58% | +0.3σ | $0.90T | $1.41T |
| Q3 1973 | 67% | 59% | +0.4σ | $0.95T | $1.43T |
| Q4 1973 | 55% | 59% | −0.2σ | $0.81T | $1.48T |
| Q1 1974 | 53% | 59% | −0.3σ | $0.78T | $1.49T |
| Q2 1974 | 47% | 59% | −0.6σ | $0.72T | $1.53T |
| Q3 1974 | 35% | 60% | −1.3σ | $0.54T | $1.56T |
| Q4 1974 | 35% | 60% | −1.3σ | $0.56T | $1.60T |
| Q1 1975 | 42% | 60% | −0.9σ | $0.68T | $1.62T |
| Q2 1975 | 48% | 60% | −0.6σ | $0.79T | $1.65T |
| Q3 1975 | 41% | 61% | −1.0σ | $0.70T | $1.71T |
| Q4 1975 | 43% | 61% | −0.9σ | $0.75T | $1.76T |
| Q1 1976 | 48% | 61% | −0.7σ | $0.87T | $1.82T |
| Q2 1976 | 48% | 61% | −0.7σ | $0.89T | $1.85T |
| Q3 1976 | 48% | 62% | −0.7σ | $0.90T | $1.89T |
| Q4 1976 | 48% | 62% | −0.7σ | $0.93T | $1.93T |
| Q1 1977 | 43% | 62% | −0.9σ | $0.86T | $1.99T |
| Q2 1977 | 43% | 62% | −1.0σ | $0.88T | $2.06T |
| Q3 1977 | 40% | 63% | −1.1σ | $0.85T | $2.12T |
| Q4 1977 | 38% | 63% | −1.2σ | $0.82T | $2.16T |
| Q1 1978 | 35% | 63% | −1.4σ | $0.77T | $2.20T |
| Q2 1978 | 36% | 64% | −1.4σ | $0.83T | $2.33T |
| Q3 1978 | 37% | 64% | −1.3σ | $0.90T | $2.40T |
| Q4 1978 | 35% | 64% | −1.4σ | $0.86T | $2.48T |
| Q1 1979 | 36% | 64% | −1.4σ | $0.91T | $2.53T |
| Q2 1979 | 36% | 65% | −1.4σ | $0.92T | $2.59T |
| Q3 1979 | 37% | 65% | −1.3σ | $0.98T | $2.67T |
| Q4 1979 | 37% | 65% | −1.3σ | $1.01T | $2.72T |
| Q1 1980 | 34% | 66% | −1.5σ | $0.96T | $2.79T |
| Q2 1980 | 38% | 66% | −1.3σ | $1.08T | $2.80T |
| Q3 1980 | 43% | 66% | −1.1σ | $1.21T | $2.86T |
| Q4 1980 | 45% | 66% | −1.0σ | $1.35T | $2.99T |
| Q1 1981 | 43% | 67% | −1.1σ | $1.35T | $3.12T |
| Q2 1981 | 42% | 67% | −1.2σ | $1.32T | $3.16T |
| Q3 1981 | 35% | 67% | −1.5σ | $1.14T | $3.26T |
| Q4 1981 | 37% | 68% | −1.4σ | $1.23T | $3.28T |
| Q1 1982 | 33% | 68% | −1.6σ | $1.09T | $3.27T |
| Q2 1982 | 32% | 68% | −1.6σ | $1.07T | $3.33T |
| Q3 1982 | 35% | 69% | −1.5σ | $1.17T | $3.37T |
| Q4 1982 | 41% | 69% | −1.3σ | $1.39T | $3.40T |
| Q1 1983 | 44% | 69% | −1.1σ | $1.53T | $3.47T |
| Q2 1983 | 49% | 69% | −0.9σ | $1.74T | $3.58T |
| Q3 1983 | 46% | 70% | −1.0σ | $1.71T | $3.69T |
| Q4 1983 | 43% | 70% | −1.2σ | $1.63T | $3.79T |
| Q1 1984 | 39% | 70% | −1.4σ | $1.53T | $3.91T |
| Q2 1984 | 36% | 71% | −1.5σ | $1.46T | $4.01T |
| Q3 1984 | 38% | 71% | −1.4σ | $1.54T | $4.08T |
| Q4 1984 | 37% | 71% | −1.5σ | $1.55T | $4.15T |
| Q1 1985 | 40% | 72% | −1.4σ | $1.67T | $4.23T |
| Q2 1985 | 41% | 72% | −1.3σ | $1.74T | $4.29T |
| Q3 1985 | 37% | 72% | −1.5σ | $1.64T | $4.39T |
| Q4 1985 | 43% | 73% | −1.2σ | $1.92T | $4.44T |
| Q1 1986 | 47% | 73% | −1.1σ | $2.14T | $4.51T |
| Q2 1986 | 49% | 73% | −1.0σ | $2.25T | $4.55T |
| Q3 1986 | 44% | 73% | −1.2σ | $2.03T | $4.61T |
| Q4 1986 | 48% | 74% | −1.1σ | $2.24T | $4.66T |
| Q1 1987 | 57% | 74% | −0.7σ | $2.71T | $4.72T |
| Q2 1987 | 58% | 74% | −0.7σ | $2.78T | $4.81T |
| Q3 1987 | 60% | 75% | −0.6σ | $2.95T | $4.88T |
| Q4 1987 | 46% | 75% | −1.2σ | $2.29T | $5.01T |
| Q1 1988 | 48% | 75% | −1.1σ | $2.42T | $5.07T |
| Q2 1988 | 48% | 76% | −1.1σ | $2.52T | $5.19T |
| Q3 1988 | 47% | 76% | −1.2σ | $2.46T | $5.28T |
| Q4 1988 | 47% | 76% | −1.2σ | $2.56T | $5.40T |
| Q1 1989 | 48% | 77% | −1.1σ | $2.67T | $5.51T |
| Q2 1989 | 51% | 77% | −1.1σ | $2.84T | $5.61T |
| Q3 1989 | 54% | 77% | −0.9σ | $3.06T | $5.70T |
| Q4 1989 | 55% | 78% | −0.9σ | $3.14T | $5.75T |
| Q1 1990 | 51% | 78% | −1.1σ | $3.01T | $5.87T |
| Q2 1990 | 53% | 78% | −1.0σ | $3.14T | $5.96T |
| Q3 1990 | 44% | 79% | −1.4σ | $2.65T | $6.02T |
| Q4 1990 | 49% | 79% | −1.2σ | $2.96T | $6.00T |
| Q1 1991 | 56% | 80% | −0.9σ | $3.40T | $6.04T |
| Q2 1991 | 55% | 80% | −1.0σ | $3.36T | $6.13T |
| Q3 1991 | 57% | 80% | −0.9σ | $3.54T | $6.21T |
| Q4 1991 | 64% | 81% | −0.6σ | $4.00T | $6.26T |
| Q1 1992 | 62% | 81% | −0.7σ | $3.91T | $6.36T |
| Q2 1992 | 60% | 81% | −0.8σ | $3.88T | $6.47T |
| Q3 1992 | 61% | 82% | −0.8σ | $3.97T | $6.57T |
| Q4 1992 | 65% | 82% | −0.6σ | $4.37T | $6.68T |
| Q1 1993 | 67% | 82% | −0.6σ | $4.49T | $6.73T |
| Q2 1993 | 66% | 83% | −0.6σ | $4.52T | $6.81T |
| Q3 1993 | 68% | 83% | −0.6σ | $4.65T | $6.88T |
| Q4 1993 | 69% | 83% | −0.5σ | $4.87T | $7.01T |
| Q1 1994 | 65% | 84% | −0.7σ | $4.66T | $7.12T |
| Q2 1994 | 63% | 84% | −0.8σ | $4.57T | $7.25T |
| Q3 1994 | 66% | 85% | −0.7σ | $4.83T | $7.33T |
| Q4 1994 | 65% | 85% | −0.7σ | $4.83T | $7.46T |
| Q1 1995 | 69% | 85% | −0.6σ | $5.20T | $7.52T |
| Q2 1995 | 74% | 86% | −0.4σ | $5.63T | $7.58T |
| Q3 1995 | 79% | 86% | −0.3σ | $6.06T | $7.68T |
| Q4 1995 | 83% | 86% | −0.1σ | $6.45T | $7.77T |
| Q1 1996 | 86% | 87% | −0.0σ | $6.73T | $7.87T |
| Q2 1996 | 88% | 87% | +0.0σ | $7.04T | $8.03T |
| Q3 1996 | 87% | 88% | −0.0σ | $7.10T | $8.13T |
| Q4 1996 | 90% | 88% | +0.1σ | $7.40T | $8.26T |
| Q1 1997 | 89% | 88% | +0.0σ | $7.45T | $8.36T |
| Q2 1997 | 101% | 89% | +0.4σ | $8.60T | $8.52T |
| Q3 1997 | 107% | 89% | +0.6σ | $9.30T | $8.66T |
| Q4 1997 | 108% | 90% | +0.6σ | $9.43T | $8.77T |
| Q1 1998 | 122% | 90% | +1.1σ | $10.79T | $8.87T |
| Q2 1998 | 122% | 90% | +1.1σ | $10.98T | $8.97T |
| Q3 1998 | 109% | 91% | +0.6σ | $9.91T | $9.12T |
| Q4 1998 | 128% | 91% | +1.2σ | $11.88T | $9.29T |
| Q1 1999 | 129% | 91% | +1.3σ | $12.16T | $9.41T |
| Q2 1999 | 139% | 92% | +1.6σ | $13.21T | $9.53T |
| Q3 1999 | 131% | 92% | +1.3σ | $12.70T | $9.69T |
| Q4 1999 | 155% | 93% | +2.1σ | $15.39T | $9.90T |
| Q1 2000 | 163% | 93% | +2.3σ | $16.26T | $10.00T |
| Q2 2000 | 152% | 94% | +1.9σ | $15.62T | $10.25T |
| Q3 2000 | 148% | 94% | +1.8σ | $15.26T | $10.32T |
| Q4 2000 | 128% | 94% | +1.1σ | $13.36T | $10.44T |
| Q1 2001 | 113% | 95% | +0.6σ | $11.80T | $10.47T |
| Q2 2001 | 119% | 95% | +0.8σ | $12.66T | $10.60T |
| Q3 2001 | 100% | 96% | +0.1σ | $10.61T | $10.60T |
| Q4 2001 | 112% | 96% | +0.5σ | $11.94T | $10.66T |
| Q1 2002 | 111% | 96% | +0.5σ | $12.00T | $10.78T |
| Q2 2002 | 96% | 97% | −0.0σ | $10.42T | $10.89T |
| Q3 2002 | 79% | 97% | −0.6σ | $8.67T | $10.98T |
| Q4 2002 | 84% | 98% | −0.4σ | $9.27T | $11.06T |
| Q1 2003 | 81% | 98% | −0.5σ | $9.02T | $11.17T |
| Q2 2003 | 92% | 99% | −0.2σ | $10.37T | $11.31T |
| Q3 2003 | 93% | 99% | −0.2σ | $10.77T | $11.57T |
| Q4 2003 | 101% | 99% | +0.1σ | $11.93T | $11.77T |
| Q1 2004 | 103% | 100% | +0.1σ | $12.34T | $11.92T |
| Q2 2004 | 104% | 100% | +0.1σ | $12.64T | $12.11T |
| Q3 2004 | 100% | 101% | −0.0σ | $12.34T | $12.31T |
| Q4 2004 | 108% | 101% | +0.2σ | $13.52T | $12.53T |
| Q1 2005 | 105% | 102% | +0.1σ | $13.46T | $12.77T |
| Q2 2005 | 106% | 102% | +0.1σ | $13.74T | $12.92T |
| Q3 2005 | 108% | 103% | +0.2σ | $14.22T | $13.14T |
| Q4 2005 | 107% | 103% | +0.1σ | $14.22T | $13.32T |
| Q1 2006 | 112% | 103% | +0.3σ | $15.23T | $13.60T |
| Q2 2006 | 107% | 104% | +0.1σ | $14.75T | $13.75T |
| Q3 2006 | 109% | 104% | +0.1σ | $15.15T | $13.87T |
| Q4 2006 | 114% | 105% | +0.3σ | $16.02T | $14.04T |
| Q1 2007 | 117% | 105% | +0.3σ | $16.66T | $14.22T |
| Q2 2007 | 121% | 106% | +0.4σ | $17.39T | $14.40T |
| Q3 2007 | 121% | 106% | +0.4σ | $17.57T | $14.56T |
| Q4 2007 | 115% | 107% | +0.2σ | $16.91T | $14.72T |
| Q1 2008 | 106% | 107% | −0.0σ | $15.61T | $14.71T |
| Q2 2008 | 104% | 108% | −0.1σ | $15.44T | $14.87T |
| Q3 2008 | 93% | 108% | −0.4σ | $13.82T | $14.90T |
| Q4 2008 | 76% | 109% | −0.9σ | $11.04T | $14.61T |
| Q1 2009 | 69% | 109% | −1.1σ | $9.96T | $14.43T |
| Q2 2009 | 79% | 109% | −0.9σ | $11.35T | $14.38T |
| Q3 2009 | 90% | 110% | −0.6σ | $12.98T | $14.45T |
| Q4 2009 | 93% | 110% | −0.5σ | $13.67T | $14.65T |
| Q1 2010 | 96% | 111% | −0.4σ | $14.22T | $14.76T |
| Q2 2010 | 85% | 111% | −0.7σ | $12.78T | $14.98T |
| Q3 2010 | 94% | 112% | −0.5σ | $14.16T | $15.14T |
| Q4 2010 | 102% | 112% | −0.3σ | $15.57T | $15.31T |
| Q1 2011 | 108% | 113% | −0.1σ | $16.56T | $15.35T |
| Q2 2011 | 106% | 113% | −0.2σ | $16.51T | $15.56T |
| Q3 2011 | 91% | 114% | −0.6σ | $14.19T | $15.65T |
| Q4 2011 | 98% | 114% | −0.4σ | $15.59T | $15.84T |
| Q1 2012 | 106% | 115% | −0.2σ | $17.02T | $16.07T |
| Q2 2012 | 102% | 115% | −0.4σ | $16.54T | $16.21T |
| Q3 2012 | 108% | 116% | −0.2σ | $17.64T | $16.32T |
| Q4 2012 | 106% | 116% | −0.3σ | $17.48T | $16.42T |
| Q1 2013 | 118% | 117% | +0.0σ | $19.64T | $16.65T |
| Q2 2013 | 120% | 117% | +0.1σ | $20.00T | $16.73T |
| Q3 2013 | 124% | 118% | +0.2σ | $21.08T | $16.95T |
| Q4 2013 | 132% | 118% | +0.4σ | $22.68T | $17.19T |
| Q1 2014 | 136% | 119% | +0.4σ | $23.43T | $17.20T |
| Q2 2014 | 140% | 120% | +0.5σ | $24.51T | $17.52T |
| Q3 2014 | 137% | 120% | +0.4σ | $24.32T | $17.80T |
| Q4 2014 | 141% | 121% | +0.5σ | $25.32T | $17.91T |
| Q1 2015 | 141% | 121% | +0.5σ | $25.49T | $18.06T |
| Q2 2015 | 138% | 122% | +0.4σ | $25.18T | $18.28T |
| Q3 2015 | 127% | 122% | +0.1σ | $23.28T | $18.40T |
| Q4 2015 | 132% | 123% | +0.2σ | $24.35T | $18.44T |
| Q1 2016 | 134% | 123% | +0.3σ | $24.76T | $18.53T |
| Q2 2016 | 135% | 124% | +0.3σ | $25.25T | $18.71T |
| Q3 2016 | 137% | 124% | +0.3σ | $25.84T | $18.89T |
| Q4 2016 | 135% | 125% | +0.3σ | $25.85T | $19.09T |
| Q1 2017 | 141% | 125% | +0.4σ | $27.26T | $19.28T |
| Q2 2017 | 142% | 126% | +0.4σ | $27.69T | $19.44T |
| Q3 2017 | 144% | 127% | +0.4σ | $28.46T | $19.69T |
| Q4 2017 | 150% | 127% | +0.6σ | $30.02T | $20.04T |
| Q1 2018 | 146% | 128% | +0.5σ | $29.74T | $20.33T |
| Q2 2018 | 150% | 128% | +0.5σ | $30.84T | $20.58T |
| Q3 2018 | 157% | 129% | +0.7σ | $32.56T | $20.80T |
| Q4 2018 | 134% | 129% | +0.1σ | $27.93T | $20.92T |
| Q1 2019 | 151% | 130% | +0.5σ | $31.84T | $21.11T |
| Q2 2019 | 152% | 130% | +0.5σ | $32.63T | $21.40T |
| Q3 2019 | 151% | 131% | +0.5σ | $32.78T | $21.72T |
| Q4 2019 | 160% | 132% | +0.7σ | $35.07T | $21.93T |
| Q1 2020 | 129% | 132% | −0.1σ | $28.01T | $21.75T |
| Q2 2020 | 173% | 133% | +0.9σ | $34.55T | $19.96T |
| Q3 2020 | 176% | 133% | +1.0σ | $38.12T | $21.70T |
| Q4 2020 | 198% | 134% | +1.5σ | $43.79T | $22.09T |
| Q1 2021 | 206% | 135% | +1.6σ | $46.71T | $22.70T |
| Q2 2021 | 215% | 135% | +1.8σ | $50.53T | $23.46T |
| Q3 2021 | 211% | 136% | +1.7σ | $50.56T | $24.00T |
| Q4 2021 | 219% | 136% | +1.9σ | $54.28T | $24.82T |
| Q1 2022 | 203% | 137% | +1.5σ | $51.24T | $25.26T |
| Q2 2022 | 164% | 138% | +0.6σ | $42.36T | $25.87T |
| Q3 2022 | 153% | 138% | +0.3σ | $40.37T | $26.34T |
| Q4 2022 | 157% | 139% | +0.4σ | $42.06T | $26.77T |
| Q1 2023 | 167% | 139% | +0.6σ | $45.42T | $27.24T |
| Q2 2023 | 178% | 140% | +0.8σ | $48.93T | $27.53T |
| Q3 2023 | 167% | 141% | +0.6σ | $46.93T | $28.06T |
| Q4 2023 | 182% | 141% | +0.9σ | $51.75T | $28.46T |
| Q1 2024 | 197% | 142% | +1.2σ | $56.65T | $28.79T |
| Q2 2024 | 199% | 142% | +1.2σ | $58.19T | $29.23T |
| Q3 2024 | 208% | 143% | +1.4σ | $61.38T | $29.57T |
| Q4 2024 | 210% | 144% | +1.4σ | $62.77T | $29.93T |
| Q1 2025 | 197% | 144% | +1.1σ | $59.43T | $30.17T |
| Q2 2025 | 213% | 145% | +1.5σ | $65.33T | $30.63T |
| Q3 2025 | 226% | 146% | +1.7σ | $70.40T | $31.18T |
| Q4 2025 | 229% | 146% | +1.7σ | $71.99T | $31.46T |
| Q1 2026 | 219% | 147% | +1.5σ | $70.02T | $31.91T |
| Q2 2026 | 255% | 147% | +2.3σ | $83.05T | $32.56T |
Standard deviations from the trend
How far each quarter sat above or below the trend, measured in standard deviations. Above +1 reads as overvalued and below −1 as undervalued.
| Quarter | Market value ÷ GDP | Trend | From the trend | Stock market value | GDP (annual rate) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q4 1951 | 41% | 40% | +0.1σ | $0.15T | $0.36T |
| Q1 1952 | 42% | 40% | +0.2σ | $0.15T | $0.36T |
| Q2 1952 | 44% | 40% | +0.3σ | $0.16T | $0.36T |
| Q3 1952 | 43% | 40% | +0.2σ | $0.16T | $0.37T |
| Q4 1952 | 39% | 41% | −0.2σ | $0.15T | $0.38T |
| Q1 1953 | 37% | 41% | −0.3σ | $0.14T | $0.39T |
| Q2 1953 | 34% | 41% | −0.5σ | $0.13T | $0.39T |
| Q3 1953 | 33% | 41% | −0.6σ | $0.13T | $0.39T |
| Q4 1953 | 37% | 41% | −0.3σ | $0.14T | $0.39T |
| Q1 1954 | 41% | 42% | −0.1σ | $0.16T | $0.39T |
| Q2 1954 | 45% | 42% | +0.2σ | $0.17T | $0.39T |
| Q3 1954 | 49% | 42% | +0.5σ | $0.19T | $0.39T |
| Q4 1954 | 49% | 42% | +0.5σ | $0.19T | $0.40T |
| Q1 1955 | 49% | 42% | +0.5σ | $0.20T | $0.41T |
| Q2 1955 | 54% | 42% | +0.8σ | $0.23T | $0.42T |
| Q3 1955 | 56% | 43% | +1.0σ | $0.24T | $0.43T |
| Q4 1955 | 56% | 43% | +0.9σ | $0.24T | $0.44T |
| Q1 1956 | 60% | 43% | +1.2σ | $0.26T | $0.44T |
| Q2 1956 | 57% | 43% | +1.0σ | $0.25T | $0.45T |
| Q3 1956 | 55% | 43% | +0.8σ | $0.25T | $0.45T |
| Q4 1956 | 58% | 44% | +1.0σ | $0.27T | $0.46T |
| Q1 1957 | 54% | 44% | +0.7σ | $0.25T | $0.47T |
| Q2 1957 | 58% | 44% | +1.0σ | $0.27T | $0.47T |
| Q3 1957 | 51% | 44% | +0.5σ | $0.25T | $0.48T |
| Q4 1957 | 52% | 44% | +0.5σ | $0.25T | $0.47T |
| Q1 1958 | 56% | 45% | +0.8σ | $0.26T | $0.47T |
| Q2 1958 | 59% | 45% | +1.0σ | $0.28T | $0.47T |
| Q3 1958 | 64% | 45% | +1.3σ | $0.31T | $0.49T |
| Q4 1958 | 65% | 45% | +1.4σ | $0.32T | $0.50T |
| Q1 1959 | 65% | 45% | +1.3σ | $0.33T | $0.51T |
| Q2 1959 | 66% | 46% | +1.4σ | $0.35T | $0.52T |
| Q3 1959 | 65% | 46% | +1.3σ | $0.34T | $0.53T |
| Q4 1959 | 69% | 46% | +1.5σ | $0.36T | $0.53T |
| Q1 1960 | 63% | 46% | +1.1σ | $0.34T | $0.54T |
| Q2 1960 | 64% | 46% | +1.2σ | $0.35T | $0.54T |
| Q3 1960 | 59% | 47% | +0.8σ | $0.32T | $0.55T |
| Q4 1960 | 68% | 47% | +1.4σ | $0.37T | $0.54T |
| Q1 1961 | 75% | 47% | +1.9σ | $0.41T | $0.55T |
| Q2 1961 | 74% | 47% | +1.8σ | $0.41T | $0.56T |
| Q3 1961 | 75% | 47% | +1.8σ | $0.42T | $0.57T |
| Q4 1961 | 75% | 48% | +1.8σ | $0.44T | $0.58T |
| Q1 1962 | 72% | 48% | +1.6σ | $0.43T | $0.59T |
| Q2 1962 | 54% | 48% | +0.4σ | $0.33T | $0.60T |
| Q3 1962 | 57% | 48% | +0.5σ | $0.35T | $0.61T |
| Q4 1962 | 69% | 48% | +1.3σ | $0.42T | $0.61T |
| Q1 1963 | 72% | 49% | +1.5σ | $0.45T | $0.62T |
| Q2 1963 | 74% | 49% | +1.6σ | $0.47T | $0.63T |
| Q3 1963 | 76% | 49% | +1.7σ | $0.49T | $0.64T |
| Q4 1963 | 71% | 49% | +1.4σ | $0.47T | $0.65T |
| Q1 1964 | 74% | 50% | +1.5σ | $0.50T | $0.67T |
| Q2 1964 | 75% | 50% | +1.6σ | $0.51T | $0.68T |
| Q3 1964 | 76% | 50% | +1.6σ | $0.53T | $0.69T |
| Q4 1964 | 78% | 50% | +1.7σ | $0.55T | $0.70T |
| Q1 1965 | 78% | 50% | +1.7σ | $0.56T | $0.72T |
| Q2 1965 | 74% | 51% | +1.4σ | $0.54T | $0.73T |
| Q3 1965 | 78% | 51% | +1.7σ | $0.59T | $0.75T |
| Q4 1965 | 81% | 51% | +1.8σ | $0.62T | $0.77T |
| Q1 1966 | 76% | 51% | +1.5σ | $0.61T | $0.80T |
| Q2 1966 | 72% | 52% | +1.2σ | $0.58T | $0.80T |
| Q3 1966 | 64% | 52% | +0.7σ | $0.52T | $0.82T |
| Q4 1966 | 66% | 52% | +0.8σ | $0.55T | $0.83T |
| Q1 1967 | 74% | 52% | +1.3σ | $0.63T | $0.84T |
| Q2 1967 | 76% | 52% | +1.4σ | $0.64T | $0.85T |
| Q3 1967 | 78% | 53% | +1.5σ | $0.68T | $0.87T |
| Q4 1967 | 81% | 53% | +1.6σ | $0.71T | $0.88T |
| Q1 1968 | 72% | 53% | +1.1σ | $0.65T | $0.91T |
| Q2 1968 | 78% | 53% | +1.4σ | $0.73T | $0.93T |
| Q3 1968 | 77% | 54% | +1.3σ | $0.73T | $0.95T |
| Q4 1968 | 87% | 54% | +1.9σ | $0.84T | $0.97T |
| Q1 1969 | 81% | 54% | +1.5σ | $0.80T | $0.99T |
| Q2 1969 | 77% | 54% | +1.3σ | $0.77T | $1.01T |
| Q3 1969 | 72% | 55% | +1.0σ | $0.74T | $1.03T |
| Q4 1969 | 68% | 55% | +0.7σ | $0.71T | $1.04T |
| Q1 1970 | 64% | 55% | +0.5σ | $0.68T | $1.05T |
| Q2 1970 | 51% | 55% | −0.3σ | $0.54T | $1.07T |
| Q3 1970 | 58% | 56% | +0.2σ | $0.63T | $1.09T |
| Q4 1970 | 65% | 56% | +0.5σ | $0.70T | $1.09T |
| Q1 1971 | 68% | 56% | +0.7σ | $0.77T | $1.14T |
| Q2 1971 | 67% | 56% | +0.6σ | $0.78T | $1.16T |
| Q3 1971 | 65% | 56% | +0.5σ | $0.77T | $1.18T |
| Q4 1971 | 69% | 57% | +0.7σ | $0.82T | $1.19T |
| Q1 1972 | 71% | 57% | +0.8σ | $0.87T | $1.23T |
| Q2 1972 | 69% | 57% | +0.6σ | $0.88T | $1.27T |
| Q3 1972 | 69% | 57% | +0.6σ | $0.89T | $1.29T |
| Q4 1972 | 78% | 58% | +1.1σ | $1.03T | $1.33T |
| Q1 1973 | 70% | 58% | +0.7σ | $0.97T | $1.38T |
| Q2 1973 | 64% | 58% | +0.3σ | $0.90T | $1.41T |
| Q3 1973 | 67% | 59% | +0.4σ | $0.95T | $1.43T |
| Q4 1973 | 55% | 59% | −0.2σ | $0.81T | $1.48T |
| Q1 1974 | 53% | 59% | −0.3σ | $0.78T | $1.49T |
| Q2 1974 | 47% | 59% | −0.6σ | $0.72T | $1.53T |
| Q3 1974 | 35% | 60% | −1.3σ | $0.54T | $1.56T |
| Q4 1974 | 35% | 60% | −1.3σ | $0.56T | $1.60T |
| Q1 1975 | 42% | 60% | −0.9σ | $0.68T | $1.62T |
| Q2 1975 | 48% | 60% | −0.6σ | $0.79T | $1.65T |
| Q3 1975 | 41% | 61% | −1.0σ | $0.70T | $1.71T |
| Q4 1975 | 43% | 61% | −0.9σ | $0.75T | $1.76T |
| Q1 1976 | 48% | 61% | −0.7σ | $0.87T | $1.82T |
| Q2 1976 | 48% | 61% | −0.7σ | $0.89T | $1.85T |
| Q3 1976 | 48% | 62% | −0.7σ | $0.90T | $1.89T |
| Q4 1976 | 48% | 62% | −0.7σ | $0.93T | $1.93T |
| Q1 1977 | 43% | 62% | −0.9σ | $0.86T | $1.99T |
| Q2 1977 | 43% | 62% | −1.0σ | $0.88T | $2.06T |
| Q3 1977 | 40% | 63% | −1.1σ | $0.85T | $2.12T |
| Q4 1977 | 38% | 63% | −1.2σ | $0.82T | $2.16T |
| Q1 1978 | 35% | 63% | −1.4σ | $0.77T | $2.20T |
| Q2 1978 | 36% | 64% | −1.4σ | $0.83T | $2.33T |
| Q3 1978 | 37% | 64% | −1.3σ | $0.90T | $2.40T |
| Q4 1978 | 35% | 64% | −1.4σ | $0.86T | $2.48T |
| Q1 1979 | 36% | 64% | −1.4σ | $0.91T | $2.53T |
| Q2 1979 | 36% | 65% | −1.4σ | $0.92T | $2.59T |
| Q3 1979 | 37% | 65% | −1.3σ | $0.98T | $2.67T |
| Q4 1979 | 37% | 65% | −1.3σ | $1.01T | $2.72T |
| Q1 1980 | 34% | 66% | −1.5σ | $0.96T | $2.79T |
| Q2 1980 | 38% | 66% | −1.3σ | $1.08T | $2.80T |
| Q3 1980 | 43% | 66% | −1.1σ | $1.21T | $2.86T |
| Q4 1980 | 45% | 66% | −1.0σ | $1.35T | $2.99T |
| Q1 1981 | 43% | 67% | −1.1σ | $1.35T | $3.12T |
| Q2 1981 | 42% | 67% | −1.2σ | $1.32T | $3.16T |
| Q3 1981 | 35% | 67% | −1.5σ | $1.14T | $3.26T |
| Q4 1981 | 37% | 68% | −1.4σ | $1.23T | $3.28T |
| Q1 1982 | 33% | 68% | −1.6σ | $1.09T | $3.27T |
| Q2 1982 | 32% | 68% | −1.6σ | $1.07T | $3.33T |
| Q3 1982 | 35% | 69% | −1.5σ | $1.17T | $3.37T |
| Q4 1982 | 41% | 69% | −1.3σ | $1.39T | $3.40T |
| Q1 1983 | 44% | 69% | −1.1σ | $1.53T | $3.47T |
| Q2 1983 | 49% | 69% | −0.9σ | $1.74T | $3.58T |
| Q3 1983 | 46% | 70% | −1.0σ | $1.71T | $3.69T |
| Q4 1983 | 43% | 70% | −1.2σ | $1.63T | $3.79T |
| Q1 1984 | 39% | 70% | −1.4σ | $1.53T | $3.91T |
| Q2 1984 | 36% | 71% | −1.5σ | $1.46T | $4.01T |
| Q3 1984 | 38% | 71% | −1.4σ | $1.54T | $4.08T |
| Q4 1984 | 37% | 71% | −1.5σ | $1.55T | $4.15T |
| Q1 1985 | 40% | 72% | −1.4σ | $1.67T | $4.23T |
| Q2 1985 | 41% | 72% | −1.3σ | $1.74T | $4.29T |
| Q3 1985 | 37% | 72% | −1.5σ | $1.64T | $4.39T |
| Q4 1985 | 43% | 73% | −1.2σ | $1.92T | $4.44T |
| Q1 1986 | 47% | 73% | −1.1σ | $2.14T | $4.51T |
| Q2 1986 | 49% | 73% | −1.0σ | $2.25T | $4.55T |
| Q3 1986 | 44% | 73% | −1.2σ | $2.03T | $4.61T |
| Q4 1986 | 48% | 74% | −1.1σ | $2.24T | $4.66T |
| Q1 1987 | 57% | 74% | −0.7σ | $2.71T | $4.72T |
| Q2 1987 | 58% | 74% | −0.7σ | $2.78T | $4.81T |
| Q3 1987 | 60% | 75% | −0.6σ | $2.95T | $4.88T |
| Q4 1987 | 46% | 75% | −1.2σ | $2.29T | $5.01T |
| Q1 1988 | 48% | 75% | −1.1σ | $2.42T | $5.07T |
| Q2 1988 | 48% | 76% | −1.1σ | $2.52T | $5.19T |
| Q3 1988 | 47% | 76% | −1.2σ | $2.46T | $5.28T |
| Q4 1988 | 47% | 76% | −1.2σ | $2.56T | $5.40T |
| Q1 1989 | 48% | 77% | −1.1σ | $2.67T | $5.51T |
| Q2 1989 | 51% | 77% | −1.1σ | $2.84T | $5.61T |
| Q3 1989 | 54% | 77% | −0.9σ | $3.06T | $5.70T |
| Q4 1989 | 55% | 78% | −0.9σ | $3.14T | $5.75T |
| Q1 1990 | 51% | 78% | −1.1σ | $3.01T | $5.87T |
| Q2 1990 | 53% | 78% | −1.0σ | $3.14T | $5.96T |
| Q3 1990 | 44% | 79% | −1.4σ | $2.65T | $6.02T |
| Q4 1990 | 49% | 79% | −1.2σ | $2.96T | $6.00T |
| Q1 1991 | 56% | 80% | −0.9σ | $3.40T | $6.04T |
| Q2 1991 | 55% | 80% | −1.0σ | $3.36T | $6.13T |
| Q3 1991 | 57% | 80% | −0.9σ | $3.54T | $6.21T |
| Q4 1991 | 64% | 81% | −0.6σ | $4.00T | $6.26T |
| Q1 1992 | 62% | 81% | −0.7σ | $3.91T | $6.36T |
| Q2 1992 | 60% | 81% | −0.8σ | $3.88T | $6.47T |
| Q3 1992 | 61% | 82% | −0.8σ | $3.97T | $6.57T |
| Q4 1992 | 65% | 82% | −0.6σ | $4.37T | $6.68T |
| Q1 1993 | 67% | 82% | −0.6σ | $4.49T | $6.73T |
| Q2 1993 | 66% | 83% | −0.6σ | $4.52T | $6.81T |
| Q3 1993 | 68% | 83% | −0.6σ | $4.65T | $6.88T |
| Q4 1993 | 69% | 83% | −0.5σ | $4.87T | $7.01T |
| Q1 1994 | 65% | 84% | −0.7σ | $4.66T | $7.12T |
| Q2 1994 | 63% | 84% | −0.8σ | $4.57T | $7.25T |
| Q3 1994 | 66% | 85% | −0.7σ | $4.83T | $7.33T |
| Q4 1994 | 65% | 85% | −0.7σ | $4.83T | $7.46T |
| Q1 1995 | 69% | 85% | −0.6σ | $5.20T | $7.52T |
| Q2 1995 | 74% | 86% | −0.4σ | $5.63T | $7.58T |
| Q3 1995 | 79% | 86% | −0.3σ | $6.06T | $7.68T |
| Q4 1995 | 83% | 86% | −0.1σ | $6.45T | $7.77T |
| Q1 1996 | 86% | 87% | −0.0σ | $6.73T | $7.87T |
| Q2 1996 | 88% | 87% | +0.0σ | $7.04T | $8.03T |
| Q3 1996 | 87% | 88% | −0.0σ | $7.10T | $8.13T |
| Q4 1996 | 90% | 88% | +0.1σ | $7.40T | $8.26T |
| Q1 1997 | 89% | 88% | +0.0σ | $7.45T | $8.36T |
| Q2 1997 | 101% | 89% | +0.4σ | $8.60T | $8.52T |
| Q3 1997 | 107% | 89% | +0.6σ | $9.30T | $8.66T |
| Q4 1997 | 108% | 90% | +0.6σ | $9.43T | $8.77T |
| Q1 1998 | 122% | 90% | +1.1σ | $10.79T | $8.87T |
| Q2 1998 | 122% | 90% | +1.1σ | $10.98T | $8.97T |
| Q3 1998 | 109% | 91% | +0.6σ | $9.91T | $9.12T |
| Q4 1998 | 128% | 91% | +1.2σ | $11.88T | $9.29T |
| Q1 1999 | 129% | 91% | +1.3σ | $12.16T | $9.41T |
| Q2 1999 | 139% | 92% | +1.6σ | $13.21T | $9.53T |
| Q3 1999 | 131% | 92% | +1.3σ | $12.70T | $9.69T |
| Q4 1999 | 155% | 93% | +2.1σ | $15.39T | $9.90T |
| Q1 2000 | 163% | 93% | +2.3σ | $16.26T | $10.00T |
| Q2 2000 | 152% | 94% | +1.9σ | $15.62T | $10.25T |
| Q3 2000 | 148% | 94% | +1.8σ | $15.26T | $10.32T |
| Q4 2000 | 128% | 94% | +1.1σ | $13.36T | $10.44T |
| Q1 2001 | 113% | 95% | +0.6σ | $11.80T | $10.47T |
| Q2 2001 | 119% | 95% | +0.8σ | $12.66T | $10.60T |
| Q3 2001 | 100% | 96% | +0.1σ | $10.61T | $10.60T |
| Q4 2001 | 112% | 96% | +0.5σ | $11.94T | $10.66T |
| Q1 2002 | 111% | 96% | +0.5σ | $12.00T | $10.78T |
| Q2 2002 | 96% | 97% | −0.0σ | $10.42T | $10.89T |
| Q3 2002 | 79% | 97% | −0.6σ | $8.67T | $10.98T |
| Q4 2002 | 84% | 98% | −0.4σ | $9.27T | $11.06T |
| Q1 2003 | 81% | 98% | −0.5σ | $9.02T | $11.17T |
| Q2 2003 | 92% | 99% | −0.2σ | $10.37T | $11.31T |
| Q3 2003 | 93% | 99% | −0.2σ | $10.77T | $11.57T |
| Q4 2003 | 101% | 99% | +0.1σ | $11.93T | $11.77T |
| Q1 2004 | 103% | 100% | +0.1σ | $12.34T | $11.92T |
| Q2 2004 | 104% | 100% | +0.1σ | $12.64T | $12.11T |
| Q3 2004 | 100% | 101% | −0.0σ | $12.34T | $12.31T |
| Q4 2004 | 108% | 101% | +0.2σ | $13.52T | $12.53T |
| Q1 2005 | 105% | 102% | +0.1σ | $13.46T | $12.77T |
| Q2 2005 | 106% | 102% | +0.1σ | $13.74T | $12.92T |
| Q3 2005 | 108% | 103% | +0.2σ | $14.22T | $13.14T |
| Q4 2005 | 107% | 103% | +0.1σ | $14.22T | $13.32T |
| Q1 2006 | 112% | 103% | +0.3σ | $15.23T | $13.60T |
| Q2 2006 | 107% | 104% | +0.1σ | $14.75T | $13.75T |
| Q3 2006 | 109% | 104% | +0.1σ | $15.15T | $13.87T |
| Q4 2006 | 114% | 105% | +0.3σ | $16.02T | $14.04T |
| Q1 2007 | 117% | 105% | +0.3σ | $16.66T | $14.22T |
| Q2 2007 | 121% | 106% | +0.4σ | $17.39T | $14.40T |
| Q3 2007 | 121% | 106% | +0.4σ | $17.57T | $14.56T |
| Q4 2007 | 115% | 107% | +0.2σ | $16.91T | $14.72T |
| Q1 2008 | 106% | 107% | −0.0σ | $15.61T | $14.71T |
| Q2 2008 | 104% | 108% | −0.1σ | $15.44T | $14.87T |
| Q3 2008 | 93% | 108% | −0.4σ | $13.82T | $14.90T |
| Q4 2008 | 76% | 109% | −0.9σ | $11.04T | $14.61T |
| Q1 2009 | 69% | 109% | −1.1σ | $9.96T | $14.43T |
| Q2 2009 | 79% | 109% | −0.9σ | $11.35T | $14.38T |
| Q3 2009 | 90% | 110% | −0.6σ | $12.98T | $14.45T |
| Q4 2009 | 93% | 110% | −0.5σ | $13.67T | $14.65T |
| Q1 2010 | 96% | 111% | −0.4σ | $14.22T | $14.76T |
| Q2 2010 | 85% | 111% | −0.7σ | $12.78T | $14.98T |
| Q3 2010 | 94% | 112% | −0.5σ | $14.16T | $15.14T |
| Q4 2010 | 102% | 112% | −0.3σ | $15.57T | $15.31T |
| Q1 2011 | 108% | 113% | −0.1σ | $16.56T | $15.35T |
| Q2 2011 | 106% | 113% | −0.2σ | $16.51T | $15.56T |
| Q3 2011 | 91% | 114% | −0.6σ | $14.19T | $15.65T |
| Q4 2011 | 98% | 114% | −0.4σ | $15.59T | $15.84T |
| Q1 2012 | 106% | 115% | −0.2σ | $17.02T | $16.07T |
| Q2 2012 | 102% | 115% | −0.4σ | $16.54T | $16.21T |
| Q3 2012 | 108% | 116% | −0.2σ | $17.64T | $16.32T |
| Q4 2012 | 106% | 116% | −0.3σ | $17.48T | $16.42T |
| Q1 2013 | 118% | 117% | +0.0σ | $19.64T | $16.65T |
| Q2 2013 | 120% | 117% | +0.1σ | $20.00T | $16.73T |
| Q3 2013 | 124% | 118% | +0.2σ | $21.08T | $16.95T |
| Q4 2013 | 132% | 118% | +0.4σ | $22.68T | $17.19T |
| Q1 2014 | 136% | 119% | +0.4σ | $23.43T | $17.20T |
| Q2 2014 | 140% | 120% | +0.5σ | $24.51T | $17.52T |
| Q3 2014 | 137% | 120% | +0.4σ | $24.32T | $17.80T |
| Q4 2014 | 141% | 121% | +0.5σ | $25.32T | $17.91T |
| Q1 2015 | 141% | 121% | +0.5σ | $25.49T | $18.06T |
| Q2 2015 | 138% | 122% | +0.4σ | $25.18T | $18.28T |
| Q3 2015 | 127% | 122% | +0.1σ | $23.28T | $18.40T |
| Q4 2015 | 132% | 123% | +0.2σ | $24.35T | $18.44T |
| Q1 2016 | 134% | 123% | +0.3σ | $24.76T | $18.53T |
| Q2 2016 | 135% | 124% | +0.3σ | $25.25T | $18.71T |
| Q3 2016 | 137% | 124% | +0.3σ | $25.84T | $18.89T |
| Q4 2016 | 135% | 125% | +0.3σ | $25.85T | $19.09T |
| Q1 2017 | 141% | 125% | +0.4σ | $27.26T | $19.28T |
| Q2 2017 | 142% | 126% | +0.4σ | $27.69T | $19.44T |
| Q3 2017 | 144% | 127% | +0.4σ | $28.46T | $19.69T |
| Q4 2017 | 150% | 127% | +0.6σ | $30.02T | $20.04T |
| Q1 2018 | 146% | 128% | +0.5σ | $29.74T | $20.33T |
| Q2 2018 | 150% | 128% | +0.5σ | $30.84T | $20.58T |
| Q3 2018 | 157% | 129% | +0.7σ | $32.56T | $20.80T |
| Q4 2018 | 134% | 129% | +0.1σ | $27.93T | $20.92T |
| Q1 2019 | 151% | 130% | +0.5σ | $31.84T | $21.11T |
| Q2 2019 | 152% | 130% | +0.5σ | $32.63T | $21.40T |
| Q3 2019 | 151% | 131% | +0.5σ | $32.78T | $21.72T |
| Q4 2019 | 160% | 132% | +0.7σ | $35.07T | $21.93T |
| Q1 2020 | 129% | 132% | −0.1σ | $28.01T | $21.75T |
| Q2 2020 | 173% | 133% | +0.9σ | $34.55T | $19.96T |
| Q3 2020 | 176% | 133% | +1.0σ | $38.12T | $21.70T |
| Q4 2020 | 198% | 134% | +1.5σ | $43.79T | $22.09T |
| Q1 2021 | 206% | 135% | +1.6σ | $46.71T | $22.70T |
| Q2 2021 | 215% | 135% | +1.8σ | $50.53T | $23.46T |
| Q3 2021 | 211% | 136% | +1.7σ | $50.56T | $24.00T |
| Q4 2021 | 219% | 136% | +1.9σ | $54.28T | $24.82T |
| Q1 2022 | 203% | 137% | +1.5σ | $51.24T | $25.26T |
| Q2 2022 | 164% | 138% | +0.6σ | $42.36T | $25.87T |
| Q3 2022 | 153% | 138% | +0.3σ | $40.37T | $26.34T |
| Q4 2022 | 157% | 139% | +0.4σ | $42.06T | $26.77T |
| Q1 2023 | 167% | 139% | +0.6σ | $45.42T | $27.24T |
| Q2 2023 | 178% | 140% | +0.8σ | $48.93T | $27.53T |
| Q3 2023 | 167% | 141% | +0.6σ | $46.93T | $28.06T |
| Q4 2023 | 182% | 141% | +0.9σ | $51.75T | $28.46T |
| Q1 2024 | 197% | 142% | +1.2σ | $56.65T | $28.79T |
| Q2 2024 | 199% | 142% | +1.2σ | $58.19T | $29.23T |
| Q3 2024 | 208% | 143% | +1.4σ | $61.38T | $29.57T |
| Q4 2024 | 210% | 144% | +1.4σ | $62.77T | $29.93T |
| Q1 2025 | 197% | 144% | +1.1σ | $59.43T | $30.17T |
| Q2 2025 | 213% | 145% | +1.5σ | $65.33T | $30.63T |
| Q3 2025 | 226% | 146% | +1.7σ | $70.40T | $31.18T |
| Q4 2025 | 229% | 146% | +1.7σ | $71.99T | $31.46T |
| Q1 2026 | 219% | 147% | +1.5σ | $70.02T | $31.91T |
| Q2 2026 | 255% | 147% | +2.3σ | $83.05T | $32.56T |
Stock market value and GDP
The two halves of the ratio in trillions of dollars: the market value of US companies’ shares at each quarter’s end, and GDP at an annual rate. When the market climbs faster than the economy, the ratio rises. On the log scale equal percentage moves have equal heights.
Stock market valueGDP (annual rate)
| Quarter | Market value ÷ GDP | Trend | From the trend | Stock market value | GDP (annual rate) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q4 1951 | 41% | 40% | +0.1σ | $0.15T | $0.36T |
| Q1 1952 | 42% | 40% | +0.2σ | $0.15T | $0.36T |
| Q2 1952 | 44% | 40% | +0.3σ | $0.16T | $0.36T |
| Q3 1952 | 43% | 40% | +0.2σ | $0.16T | $0.37T |
| Q4 1952 | 39% | 41% | −0.2σ | $0.15T | $0.38T |
| Q1 1953 | 37% | 41% | −0.3σ | $0.14T | $0.39T |
| Q2 1953 | 34% | 41% | −0.5σ | $0.13T | $0.39T |
| Q3 1953 | 33% | 41% | −0.6σ | $0.13T | $0.39T |
| Q4 1953 | 37% | 41% | −0.3σ | $0.14T | $0.39T |
| Q1 1954 | 41% | 42% | −0.1σ | $0.16T | $0.39T |
| Q2 1954 | 45% | 42% | +0.2σ | $0.17T | $0.39T |
| Q3 1954 | 49% | 42% | +0.5σ | $0.19T | $0.39T |
| Q4 1954 | 49% | 42% | +0.5σ | $0.19T | $0.40T |
| Q1 1955 | 49% | 42% | +0.5σ | $0.20T | $0.41T |
| Q2 1955 | 54% | 42% | +0.8σ | $0.23T | $0.42T |
| Q3 1955 | 56% | 43% | +1.0σ | $0.24T | $0.43T |
| Q4 1955 | 56% | 43% | +0.9σ | $0.24T | $0.44T |
| Q1 1956 | 60% | 43% | +1.2σ | $0.26T | $0.44T |
| Q2 1956 | 57% | 43% | +1.0σ | $0.25T | $0.45T |
| Q3 1956 | 55% | 43% | +0.8σ | $0.25T | $0.45T |
| Q4 1956 | 58% | 44% | +1.0σ | $0.27T | $0.46T |
| Q1 1957 | 54% | 44% | +0.7σ | $0.25T | $0.47T |
| Q2 1957 | 58% | 44% | +1.0σ | $0.27T | $0.47T |
| Q3 1957 | 51% | 44% | +0.5σ | $0.25T | $0.48T |
| Q4 1957 | 52% | 44% | +0.5σ | $0.25T | $0.47T |
| Q1 1958 | 56% | 45% | +0.8σ | $0.26T | $0.47T |
| Q2 1958 | 59% | 45% | +1.0σ | $0.28T | $0.47T |
| Q3 1958 | 64% | 45% | +1.3σ | $0.31T | $0.49T |
| Q4 1958 | 65% | 45% | +1.4σ | $0.32T | $0.50T |
| Q1 1959 | 65% | 45% | +1.3σ | $0.33T | $0.51T |
| Q2 1959 | 66% | 46% | +1.4σ | $0.35T | $0.52T |
| Q3 1959 | 65% | 46% | +1.3σ | $0.34T | $0.53T |
| Q4 1959 | 69% | 46% | +1.5σ | $0.36T | $0.53T |
| Q1 1960 | 63% | 46% | +1.1σ | $0.34T | $0.54T |
| Q2 1960 | 64% | 46% | +1.2σ | $0.35T | $0.54T |
| Q3 1960 | 59% | 47% | +0.8σ | $0.32T | $0.55T |
| Q4 1960 | 68% | 47% | +1.4σ | $0.37T | $0.54T |
| Q1 1961 | 75% | 47% | +1.9σ | $0.41T | $0.55T |
| Q2 1961 | 74% | 47% | +1.8σ | $0.41T | $0.56T |
| Q3 1961 | 75% | 47% | +1.8σ | $0.42T | $0.57T |
| Q4 1961 | 75% | 48% | +1.8σ | $0.44T | $0.58T |
| Q1 1962 | 72% | 48% | +1.6σ | $0.43T | $0.59T |
| Q2 1962 | 54% | 48% | +0.4σ | $0.33T | $0.60T |
| Q3 1962 | 57% | 48% | +0.5σ | $0.35T | $0.61T |
| Q4 1962 | 69% | 48% | +1.3σ | $0.42T | $0.61T |
| Q1 1963 | 72% | 49% | +1.5σ | $0.45T | $0.62T |
| Q2 1963 | 74% | 49% | +1.6σ | $0.47T | $0.63T |
| Q3 1963 | 76% | 49% | +1.7σ | $0.49T | $0.64T |
| Q4 1963 | 71% | 49% | +1.4σ | $0.47T | $0.65T |
| Q1 1964 | 74% | 50% | +1.5σ | $0.50T | $0.67T |
| Q2 1964 | 75% | 50% | +1.6σ | $0.51T | $0.68T |
| Q3 1964 | 76% | 50% | +1.6σ | $0.53T | $0.69T |
| Q4 1964 | 78% | 50% | +1.7σ | $0.55T | $0.70T |
| Q1 1965 | 78% | 50% | +1.7σ | $0.56T | $0.72T |
| Q2 1965 | 74% | 51% | +1.4σ | $0.54T | $0.73T |
| Q3 1965 | 78% | 51% | +1.7σ | $0.59T | $0.75T |
| Q4 1965 | 81% | 51% | +1.8σ | $0.62T | $0.77T |
| Q1 1966 | 76% | 51% | +1.5σ | $0.61T | $0.80T |
| Q2 1966 | 72% | 52% | +1.2σ | $0.58T | $0.80T |
| Q3 1966 | 64% | 52% | +0.7σ | $0.52T | $0.82T |
| Q4 1966 | 66% | 52% | +0.8σ | $0.55T | $0.83T |
| Q1 1967 | 74% | 52% | +1.3σ | $0.63T | $0.84T |
| Q2 1967 | 76% | 52% | +1.4σ | $0.64T | $0.85T |
| Q3 1967 | 78% | 53% | +1.5σ | $0.68T | $0.87T |
| Q4 1967 | 81% | 53% | +1.6σ | $0.71T | $0.88T |
| Q1 1968 | 72% | 53% | +1.1σ | $0.65T | $0.91T |
| Q2 1968 | 78% | 53% | +1.4σ | $0.73T | $0.93T |
| Q3 1968 | 77% | 54% | +1.3σ | $0.73T | $0.95T |
| Q4 1968 | 87% | 54% | +1.9σ | $0.84T | $0.97T |
| Q1 1969 | 81% | 54% | +1.5σ | $0.80T | $0.99T |
| Q2 1969 | 77% | 54% | +1.3σ | $0.77T | $1.01T |
| Q3 1969 | 72% | 55% | +1.0σ | $0.74T | $1.03T |
| Q4 1969 | 68% | 55% | +0.7σ | $0.71T | $1.04T |
| Q1 1970 | 64% | 55% | +0.5σ | $0.68T | $1.05T |
| Q2 1970 | 51% | 55% | −0.3σ | $0.54T | $1.07T |
| Q3 1970 | 58% | 56% | +0.2σ | $0.63T | $1.09T |
| Q4 1970 | 65% | 56% | +0.5σ | $0.70T | $1.09T |
| Q1 1971 | 68% | 56% | +0.7σ | $0.77T | $1.14T |
| Q2 1971 | 67% | 56% | +0.6σ | $0.78T | $1.16T |
| Q3 1971 | 65% | 56% | +0.5σ | $0.77T | $1.18T |
| Q4 1971 | 69% | 57% | +0.7σ | $0.82T | $1.19T |
| Q1 1972 | 71% | 57% | +0.8σ | $0.87T | $1.23T |
| Q2 1972 | 69% | 57% | +0.6σ | $0.88T | $1.27T |
| Q3 1972 | 69% | 57% | +0.6σ | $0.89T | $1.29T |
| Q4 1972 | 78% | 58% | +1.1σ | $1.03T | $1.33T |
| Q1 1973 | 70% | 58% | +0.7σ | $0.97T | $1.38T |
| Q2 1973 | 64% | 58% | +0.3σ | $0.90T | $1.41T |
| Q3 1973 | 67% | 59% | +0.4σ | $0.95T | $1.43T |
| Q4 1973 | 55% | 59% | −0.2σ | $0.81T | $1.48T |
| Q1 1974 | 53% | 59% | −0.3σ | $0.78T | $1.49T |
| Q2 1974 | 47% | 59% | −0.6σ | $0.72T | $1.53T |
| Q3 1974 | 35% | 60% | −1.3σ | $0.54T | $1.56T |
| Q4 1974 | 35% | 60% | −1.3σ | $0.56T | $1.60T |
| Q1 1975 | 42% | 60% | −0.9σ | $0.68T | $1.62T |
| Q2 1975 | 48% | 60% | −0.6σ | $0.79T | $1.65T |
| Q3 1975 | 41% | 61% | −1.0σ | $0.70T | $1.71T |
| Q4 1975 | 43% | 61% | −0.9σ | $0.75T | $1.76T |
| Q1 1976 | 48% | 61% | −0.7σ | $0.87T | $1.82T |
| Q2 1976 | 48% | 61% | −0.7σ | $0.89T | $1.85T |
| Q3 1976 | 48% | 62% | −0.7σ | $0.90T | $1.89T |
| Q4 1976 | 48% | 62% | −0.7σ | $0.93T | $1.93T |
| Q1 1977 | 43% | 62% | −0.9σ | $0.86T | $1.99T |
| Q2 1977 | 43% | 62% | −1.0σ | $0.88T | $2.06T |
| Q3 1977 | 40% | 63% | −1.1σ | $0.85T | $2.12T |
| Q4 1977 | 38% | 63% | −1.2σ | $0.82T | $2.16T |
| Q1 1978 | 35% | 63% | −1.4σ | $0.77T | $2.20T |
| Q2 1978 | 36% | 64% | −1.4σ | $0.83T | $2.33T |
| Q3 1978 | 37% | 64% | −1.3σ | $0.90T | $2.40T |
| Q4 1978 | 35% | 64% | −1.4σ | $0.86T | $2.48T |
| Q1 1979 | 36% | 64% | −1.4σ | $0.91T | $2.53T |
| Q2 1979 | 36% | 65% | −1.4σ | $0.92T | $2.59T |
| Q3 1979 | 37% | 65% | −1.3σ | $0.98T | $2.67T |
| Q4 1979 | 37% | 65% | −1.3σ | $1.01T | $2.72T |
| Q1 1980 | 34% | 66% | −1.5σ | $0.96T | $2.79T |
| Q2 1980 | 38% | 66% | −1.3σ | $1.08T | $2.80T |
| Q3 1980 | 43% | 66% | −1.1σ | $1.21T | $2.86T |
| Q4 1980 | 45% | 66% | −1.0σ | $1.35T | $2.99T |
| Q1 1981 | 43% | 67% | −1.1σ | $1.35T | $3.12T |
| Q2 1981 | 42% | 67% | −1.2σ | $1.32T | $3.16T |
| Q3 1981 | 35% | 67% | −1.5σ | $1.14T | $3.26T |
| Q4 1981 | 37% | 68% | −1.4σ | $1.23T | $3.28T |
| Q1 1982 | 33% | 68% | −1.6σ | $1.09T | $3.27T |
| Q2 1982 | 32% | 68% | −1.6σ | $1.07T | $3.33T |
| Q3 1982 | 35% | 69% | −1.5σ | $1.17T | $3.37T |
| Q4 1982 | 41% | 69% | −1.3σ | $1.39T | $3.40T |
| Q1 1983 | 44% | 69% | −1.1σ | $1.53T | $3.47T |
| Q2 1983 | 49% | 69% | −0.9σ | $1.74T | $3.58T |
| Q3 1983 | 46% | 70% | −1.0σ | $1.71T | $3.69T |
| Q4 1983 | 43% | 70% | −1.2σ | $1.63T | $3.79T |
| Q1 1984 | 39% | 70% | −1.4σ | $1.53T | $3.91T |
| Q2 1984 | 36% | 71% | −1.5σ | $1.46T | $4.01T |
| Q3 1984 | 38% | 71% | −1.4σ | $1.54T | $4.08T |
| Q4 1984 | 37% | 71% | −1.5σ | $1.55T | $4.15T |
| Q1 1985 | 40% | 72% | −1.4σ | $1.67T | $4.23T |
| Q2 1985 | 41% | 72% | −1.3σ | $1.74T | $4.29T |
| Q3 1985 | 37% | 72% | −1.5σ | $1.64T | $4.39T |
| Q4 1985 | 43% | 73% | −1.2σ | $1.92T | $4.44T |
| Q1 1986 | 47% | 73% | −1.1σ | $2.14T | $4.51T |
| Q2 1986 | 49% | 73% | −1.0σ | $2.25T | $4.55T |
| Q3 1986 | 44% | 73% | −1.2σ | $2.03T | $4.61T |
| Q4 1986 | 48% | 74% | −1.1σ | $2.24T | $4.66T |
| Q1 1987 | 57% | 74% | −0.7σ | $2.71T | $4.72T |
| Q2 1987 | 58% | 74% | −0.7σ | $2.78T | $4.81T |
| Q3 1987 | 60% | 75% | −0.6σ | $2.95T | $4.88T |
| Q4 1987 | 46% | 75% | −1.2σ | $2.29T | $5.01T |
| Q1 1988 | 48% | 75% | −1.1σ | $2.42T | $5.07T |
| Q2 1988 | 48% | 76% | −1.1σ | $2.52T | $5.19T |
| Q3 1988 | 47% | 76% | −1.2σ | $2.46T | $5.28T |
| Q4 1988 | 47% | 76% | −1.2σ | $2.56T | $5.40T |
| Q1 1989 | 48% | 77% | −1.1σ | $2.67T | $5.51T |
| Q2 1989 | 51% | 77% | −1.1σ | $2.84T | $5.61T |
| Q3 1989 | 54% | 77% | −0.9σ | $3.06T | $5.70T |
| Q4 1989 | 55% | 78% | −0.9σ | $3.14T | $5.75T |
| Q1 1990 | 51% | 78% | −1.1σ | $3.01T | $5.87T |
| Q2 1990 | 53% | 78% | −1.0σ | $3.14T | $5.96T |
| Q3 1990 | 44% | 79% | −1.4σ | $2.65T | $6.02T |
| Q4 1990 | 49% | 79% | −1.2σ | $2.96T | $6.00T |
| Q1 1991 | 56% | 80% | −0.9σ | $3.40T | $6.04T |
| Q2 1991 | 55% | 80% | −1.0σ | $3.36T | $6.13T |
| Q3 1991 | 57% | 80% | −0.9σ | $3.54T | $6.21T |
| Q4 1991 | 64% | 81% | −0.6σ | $4.00T | $6.26T |
| Q1 1992 | 62% | 81% | −0.7σ | $3.91T | $6.36T |
| Q2 1992 | 60% | 81% | −0.8σ | $3.88T | $6.47T |
| Q3 1992 | 61% | 82% | −0.8σ | $3.97T | $6.57T |
| Q4 1992 | 65% | 82% | −0.6σ | $4.37T | $6.68T |
| Q1 1993 | 67% | 82% | −0.6σ | $4.49T | $6.73T |
| Q2 1993 | 66% | 83% | −0.6σ | $4.52T | $6.81T |
| Q3 1993 | 68% | 83% | −0.6σ | $4.65T | $6.88T |
| Q4 1993 | 69% | 83% | −0.5σ | $4.87T | $7.01T |
| Q1 1994 | 65% | 84% | −0.7σ | $4.66T | $7.12T |
| Q2 1994 | 63% | 84% | −0.8σ | $4.57T | $7.25T |
| Q3 1994 | 66% | 85% | −0.7σ | $4.83T | $7.33T |
| Q4 1994 | 65% | 85% | −0.7σ | $4.83T | $7.46T |
| Q1 1995 | 69% | 85% | −0.6σ | $5.20T | $7.52T |
| Q2 1995 | 74% | 86% | −0.4σ | $5.63T | $7.58T |
| Q3 1995 | 79% | 86% | −0.3σ | $6.06T | $7.68T |
| Q4 1995 | 83% | 86% | −0.1σ | $6.45T | $7.77T |
| Q1 1996 | 86% | 87% | −0.0σ | $6.73T | $7.87T |
| Q2 1996 | 88% | 87% | +0.0σ | $7.04T | $8.03T |
| Q3 1996 | 87% | 88% | −0.0σ | $7.10T | $8.13T |
| Q4 1996 | 90% | 88% | +0.1σ | $7.40T | $8.26T |
| Q1 1997 | 89% | 88% | +0.0σ | $7.45T | $8.36T |
| Q2 1997 | 101% | 89% | +0.4σ | $8.60T | $8.52T |
| Q3 1997 | 107% | 89% | +0.6σ | $9.30T | $8.66T |
| Q4 1997 | 108% | 90% | +0.6σ | $9.43T | $8.77T |
| Q1 1998 | 122% | 90% | +1.1σ | $10.79T | $8.87T |
| Q2 1998 | 122% | 90% | +1.1σ | $10.98T | $8.97T |
| Q3 1998 | 109% | 91% | +0.6σ | $9.91T | $9.12T |
| Q4 1998 | 128% | 91% | +1.2σ | $11.88T | $9.29T |
| Q1 1999 | 129% | 91% | +1.3σ | $12.16T | $9.41T |
| Q2 1999 | 139% | 92% | +1.6σ | $13.21T | $9.53T |
| Q3 1999 | 131% | 92% | +1.3σ | $12.70T | $9.69T |
| Q4 1999 | 155% | 93% | +2.1σ | $15.39T | $9.90T |
| Q1 2000 | 163% | 93% | +2.3σ | $16.26T | $10.00T |
| Q2 2000 | 152% | 94% | +1.9σ | $15.62T | $10.25T |
| Q3 2000 | 148% | 94% | +1.8σ | $15.26T | $10.32T |
| Q4 2000 | 128% | 94% | +1.1σ | $13.36T | $10.44T |
| Q1 2001 | 113% | 95% | +0.6σ | $11.80T | $10.47T |
| Q2 2001 | 119% | 95% | +0.8σ | $12.66T | $10.60T |
| Q3 2001 | 100% | 96% | +0.1σ | $10.61T | $10.60T |
| Q4 2001 | 112% | 96% | +0.5σ | $11.94T | $10.66T |
| Q1 2002 | 111% | 96% | +0.5σ | $12.00T | $10.78T |
| Q2 2002 | 96% | 97% | −0.0σ | $10.42T | $10.89T |
| Q3 2002 | 79% | 97% | −0.6σ | $8.67T | $10.98T |
| Q4 2002 | 84% | 98% | −0.4σ | $9.27T | $11.06T |
| Q1 2003 | 81% | 98% | −0.5σ | $9.02T | $11.17T |
| Q2 2003 | 92% | 99% | −0.2σ | $10.37T | $11.31T |
| Q3 2003 | 93% | 99% | −0.2σ | $10.77T | $11.57T |
| Q4 2003 | 101% | 99% | +0.1σ | $11.93T | $11.77T |
| Q1 2004 | 103% | 100% | +0.1σ | $12.34T | $11.92T |
| Q2 2004 | 104% | 100% | +0.1σ | $12.64T | $12.11T |
| Q3 2004 | 100% | 101% | −0.0σ | $12.34T | $12.31T |
| Q4 2004 | 108% | 101% | +0.2σ | $13.52T | $12.53T |
| Q1 2005 | 105% | 102% | +0.1σ | $13.46T | $12.77T |
| Q2 2005 | 106% | 102% | +0.1σ | $13.74T | $12.92T |
| Q3 2005 | 108% | 103% | +0.2σ | $14.22T | $13.14T |
| Q4 2005 | 107% | 103% | +0.1σ | $14.22T | $13.32T |
| Q1 2006 | 112% | 103% | +0.3σ | $15.23T | $13.60T |
| Q2 2006 | 107% | 104% | +0.1σ | $14.75T | $13.75T |
| Q3 2006 | 109% | 104% | +0.1σ | $15.15T | $13.87T |
| Q4 2006 | 114% | 105% | +0.3σ | $16.02T | $14.04T |
| Q1 2007 | 117% | 105% | +0.3σ | $16.66T | $14.22T |
| Q2 2007 | 121% | 106% | +0.4σ | $17.39T | $14.40T |
| Q3 2007 | 121% | 106% | +0.4σ | $17.57T | $14.56T |
| Q4 2007 | 115% | 107% | +0.2σ | $16.91T | $14.72T |
| Q1 2008 | 106% | 107% | −0.0σ | $15.61T | $14.71T |
| Q2 2008 | 104% | 108% | −0.1σ | $15.44T | $14.87T |
| Q3 2008 | 93% | 108% | −0.4σ | $13.82T | $14.90T |
| Q4 2008 | 76% | 109% | −0.9σ | $11.04T | $14.61T |
| Q1 2009 | 69% | 109% | −1.1σ | $9.96T | $14.43T |
| Q2 2009 | 79% | 109% | −0.9σ | $11.35T | $14.38T |
| Q3 2009 | 90% | 110% | −0.6σ | $12.98T | $14.45T |
| Q4 2009 | 93% | 110% | −0.5σ | $13.67T | $14.65T |
| Q1 2010 | 96% | 111% | −0.4σ | $14.22T | $14.76T |
| Q2 2010 | 85% | 111% | −0.7σ | $12.78T | $14.98T |
| Q3 2010 | 94% | 112% | −0.5σ | $14.16T | $15.14T |
| Q4 2010 | 102% | 112% | −0.3σ | $15.57T | $15.31T |
| Q1 2011 | 108% | 113% | −0.1σ | $16.56T | $15.35T |
| Q2 2011 | 106% | 113% | −0.2σ | $16.51T | $15.56T |
| Q3 2011 | 91% | 114% | −0.6σ | $14.19T | $15.65T |
| Q4 2011 | 98% | 114% | −0.4σ | $15.59T | $15.84T |
| Q1 2012 | 106% | 115% | −0.2σ | $17.02T | $16.07T |
| Q2 2012 | 102% | 115% | −0.4σ | $16.54T | $16.21T |
| Q3 2012 | 108% | 116% | −0.2σ | $17.64T | $16.32T |
| Q4 2012 | 106% | 116% | −0.3σ | $17.48T | $16.42T |
| Q1 2013 | 118% | 117% | +0.0σ | $19.64T | $16.65T |
| Q2 2013 | 120% | 117% | +0.1σ | $20.00T | $16.73T |
| Q3 2013 | 124% | 118% | +0.2σ | $21.08T | $16.95T |
| Q4 2013 | 132% | 118% | +0.4σ | $22.68T | $17.19T |
| Q1 2014 | 136% | 119% | +0.4σ | $23.43T | $17.20T |
| Q2 2014 | 140% | 120% | +0.5σ | $24.51T | $17.52T |
| Q3 2014 | 137% | 120% | +0.4σ | $24.32T | $17.80T |
| Q4 2014 | 141% | 121% | +0.5σ | $25.32T | $17.91T |
| Q1 2015 | 141% | 121% | +0.5σ | $25.49T | $18.06T |
| Q2 2015 | 138% | 122% | +0.4σ | $25.18T | $18.28T |
| Q3 2015 | 127% | 122% | +0.1σ | $23.28T | $18.40T |
| Q4 2015 | 132% | 123% | +0.2σ | $24.35T | $18.44T |
| Q1 2016 | 134% | 123% | +0.3σ | $24.76T | $18.53T |
| Q2 2016 | 135% | 124% | +0.3σ | $25.25T | $18.71T |
| Q3 2016 | 137% | 124% | +0.3σ | $25.84T | $18.89T |
| Q4 2016 | 135% | 125% | +0.3σ | $25.85T | $19.09T |
| Q1 2017 | 141% | 125% | +0.4σ | $27.26T | $19.28T |
| Q2 2017 | 142% | 126% | +0.4σ | $27.69T | $19.44T |
| Q3 2017 | 144% | 127% | +0.4σ | $28.46T | $19.69T |
| Q4 2017 | 150% | 127% | +0.6σ | $30.02T | $20.04T |
| Q1 2018 | 146% | 128% | +0.5σ | $29.74T | $20.33T |
| Q2 2018 | 150% | 128% | +0.5σ | $30.84T | $20.58T |
| Q3 2018 | 157% | 129% | +0.7σ | $32.56T | $20.80T |
| Q4 2018 | 134% | 129% | +0.1σ | $27.93T | $20.92T |
| Q1 2019 | 151% | 130% | +0.5σ | $31.84T | $21.11T |
| Q2 2019 | 152% | 130% | +0.5σ | $32.63T | $21.40T |
| Q3 2019 | 151% | 131% | +0.5σ | $32.78T | $21.72T |
| Q4 2019 | 160% | 132% | +0.7σ | $35.07T | $21.93T |
| Q1 2020 | 129% | 132% | −0.1σ | $28.01T | $21.75T |
| Q2 2020 | 173% | 133% | +0.9σ | $34.55T | $19.96T |
| Q3 2020 | 176% | 133% | +1.0σ | $38.12T | $21.70T |
| Q4 2020 | 198% | 134% | +1.5σ | $43.79T | $22.09T |
| Q1 2021 | 206% | 135% | +1.6σ | $46.71T | $22.70T |
| Q2 2021 | 215% | 135% | +1.8σ | $50.53T | $23.46T |
| Q3 2021 | 211% | 136% | +1.7σ | $50.56T | $24.00T |
| Q4 2021 | 219% | 136% | +1.9σ | $54.28T | $24.82T |
| Q1 2022 | 203% | 137% | +1.5σ | $51.24T | $25.26T |
| Q2 2022 | 164% | 138% | +0.6σ | $42.36T | $25.87T |
| Q3 2022 | 153% | 138% | +0.3σ | $40.37T | $26.34T |
| Q4 2022 | 157% | 139% | +0.4σ | $42.06T | $26.77T |
| Q1 2023 | 167% | 139% | +0.6σ | $45.42T | $27.24T |
| Q2 2023 | 178% | 140% | +0.8σ | $48.93T | $27.53T |
| Q3 2023 | 167% | 141% | +0.6σ | $46.93T | $28.06T |
| Q4 2023 | 182% | 141% | +0.9σ | $51.75T | $28.46T |
| Q1 2024 | 197% | 142% | +1.2σ | $56.65T | $28.79T |
| Q2 2024 | 199% | 142% | +1.2σ | $58.19T | $29.23T |
| Q3 2024 | 208% | 143% | +1.4σ | $61.38T | $29.57T |
| Q4 2024 | 210% | 144% | +1.4σ | $62.77T | $29.93T |
| Q1 2025 | 197% | 144% | +1.1σ | $59.43T | $30.17T |
| Q2 2025 | 213% | 145% | +1.5σ | $65.33T | $30.63T |
| Q3 2025 | 226% | 146% | +1.7σ | $70.40T | $31.18T |
| Q4 2025 | 229% | 146% | +1.7σ | $71.99T | $31.46T |
| Q1 2026 | 219% | 147% | +1.5σ | $70.02T | $31.91T |
| Q2 2026 | 255% | 147% | +2.3σ | $83.05T | $32.56T |
What the Buffett Indicator measures
The Buffett Indicator compares what the whole US stock market is worth with what the US economy produces in a year. A reading of 200% means the shares of US companies are together worth twice a year’s GDP. Warren Buffett called it “probably the best single measure of where valuations stand at any given moment”.
Buffett Indicator = total US stock market value ÷ GDP.
The ratio has climbed over the decades: US companies earn more of their money abroad, more businesses are publicly listed, and profit margins and lower interest rates have lifted what investors pay. So this page judges it against its exponential trend, a line that rises at a steady rate, rather than a flat average. A reading far above the trend has been followed by lower average returns over the long run, but says little about the next month or year.
Sources & update policy
Latest published quarterAutomatic · Federal Reserve Z.1 and BEA GDP via FRED · checked Oct 12, 10:10 AM EDTQ2 2026
Stock market value is the market value of US nonfinancial corporate equities from the Federal Reserve’s Financial Accounts (Z.1), series NCBEILQ027S on FRED; it is published quarterly from Q4 1951, about ten weeks after each quarter ends. GDP is nominal GDP at a seasonally adjusted annual rate from the Bureau of Economic Analysis, series GDP on FRED. Both are read at most every six hours.
Today’s estimate moves the Q2 2026 market value with the Wilshire 5000 total market index from Yahoo Finance’s public delayed data, as of when this page was loaded, and divides by Q2 2026 GDP; GDP has grown about 6.3% a year recently, so the estimate reads slightly high until the next quarter is published. The trend is a least-squares exponential fit to every quarter shown (ending Jun 30, 2026); σ is the typical distance from it as a share of the trend. The page follows the approach of Current Market Valuation’s Buffett Indicator model, which uses a different market value measure after 1970, so its readings and thresholds can differ from these.
Not investment advice
Historical valuation data for education only. It may be delayed or incomplete, and a valuation reading is not a forecast.