How healthy is the economy?
Growth, jobs, inflation, consumers, housing and credit, each judged by published rules against the latest official data. The warning signs and leading index below have tended to turn before recessions.
At a glance
Sectors in good shape4 of 6None weak · Mixed: Inflation, Housing
Recession warning signs0 of 12None of the checks below is flashing
Custom LEI · Sep 2026+0.69%6-month total +3.57% · 3 of 4 reported inputs improved · early: not every input is out yet
Yield curveNot inverted10y−3m +0.99% · 10y−2y +0.44% · last inverted Oct 16, 2025
Growth & business
HealthyIs output expanding and are factories getting orders? 6 healthy · 0 neutral · 0 warning.
- HealthyReal GDP growthQ2 20262.2%
- HealthyIndustrial productionAug 2026+1.4%
- HealthyDurable goods ordersAug 2026+8.4%
- HealthyCore capital goods ordersAug 2026+14.1%
- HealthyFactory new orders (Philadelphia Fed)Sep 2026+29.2
- HealthyFactory workweekSep 2026 · +1.0 hrs from a year earlier42.0 hrs
Jobs
HealthyAre employers hiring and are layoffs contained? 4 healthy · 1 neutral · 0 warning.
- HealthyUnemployment rateSep 2026 · −0.20 pts from a year earlier4.2%
- NeutralJobs added (3-month average)Sep 2026+51k
- HealthyInitial jobless claimsSep 2026 · −3.9% vs 6-month average201k
- HealthyJob openingsAug 2026 · +2.3% from a year earlier7.08M
- HealthySahm rule indicatorSep 20260.00 pts
Inflation
MixedAre prices rising near the Fed’s 2% goal? 1 healthy · 1 neutral · 1 warning.
- NeutralConsumer prices (CPI)Aug 2026+3.4%
- HealthyCore CPIAug 2026+2.4%
- WarningCore PCE pricesAug 2026+3.0%
Consumers
HealthyAre households earning, spending and paying their bills? 4 healthy · 1 neutral · 0 warning.
- HealthyReal consumer spendingAug 2026+2.6%
- HealthyReal retail salesAug 2026+2.6%
- NeutralReal income excluding benefitsAug 2026+0.8%
- HealthyConsumer sentiment (Michigan)Aug 2026 · +1.9% vs 6-month average51.7
- HealthyCredit card delinquency rateQ2 2026 · −0.19 pts from a year earlier2.85%
Housing
MixedIs home building holding up and is borrowing getting cheaper? 1 healthy · 1 neutral · 1 warning.
- HealthyBuilding permitsAug 2026 · +4.2% from a year earlier1.40M
- NeutralHousing startsAug 2026 · −1.2% from a year earlier1.27M
- Warning30-year mortgage rateOct 2026 to date · +1.09 pts from a year earlier7.34%
Markets & credit
HealthyAre markets calm and is credit flowing? 7 healthy · 0 neutral · 0 warning.
- HealthyS&P 500 vs 200-day averageOct 2026 to date+7.7%
- HealthyHigh-yield credit spreadOct 2026 to date3.12%
- HealthyFinancial conditions (Chicago Fed)Oct 2026 to date−0.49
- Healthy10-year minus 3-month yieldOct 2026 to date+1.05%
- Healthy10-year minus 2-year yieldOct 2026 to date+0.47%
- HealthyBank funding stressOct 2026 to date+0.07%
- HealthyBanks tightening business loansQ3 20260.0%
A sector is healthy when its healthy indicators outnumber its warnings by at least a third of those counted, weak when warnings outnumber healthy ones by as much, and mixed otherwise. Readings not updated on schedule are left out. Point at an indicator for what it measures and the rule behind its verdict.
Recession warning signs
Twelve yes-or-no checks that have tended to turn before downturns. Market checks update every business day; the rest follow monthly and quarterly releases, so they describe conditions a few weeks to a few months back.
Daily market checks
0 of 6 warning- ClearIs the 10-year yield below the fed funds rate?Spread +1.34% · as of Oct 8, 2026 (4 days old)
- ClearIs the 10-year yield below the 2-year?Spread +0.44% · as of Oct 9, 2026 (3 days old)
- ClearIs the 10-year yield below the 3-month bill?Spread +0.99% · as of Oct 9, 2026 (3 days old)
- ClearIs the S&P 500 below its 200-day average?7,811.54, +7.7% vs the 200-day average of 7,250.63 · as of Oct 9, 2026 (3 days old)
- ClearIs bank funding stress above 0.50%?+0.03%: 90-day AA financial commercial paper minus the 3-month bill · as of Oct 6, 2026 (6 days old)Replaces the TED spread, discontinued with LIBOR in 2022.
- ClearIs the high-yield credit spread above 5.5%?Spread 3.15% · as of Oct 8, 2026 (4 days old)
Monthly and quarterly checks
0 of 6 warning- ClearIs consumer sentiment below its 6-month average?51.7 vs 6-month average 50.7 · as of Aug 2026 (72 days old)
- ClearAre banks tightening loan standards, above zero and their 3-quarter average?0.0% vs 3-quarter average +4.5% · as of Q3 2026 (103 days old)
- ClearAre factory new orders shrinking?Philadelphia Fed new orders index +29.2 · as of Sep 2026 (41 days old)ISM data is licensed; the Philadelphia Fed survey’s new orders index stands in (below zero = shrinking).
- ClearAre average weekly jobless claims above their 6-month average?201k vs 6-month average 209k · as of Sep 2026 (41 days old)
- ClearAre new building permits below their 6-month average?1.40M vs 6-month average 1.40M · as of Aug 2026 (72 days old)
- ClearHas the Sahm rule been triggered (0.5 or more)?Reading 0.00 pts · as of Sep 2026 (41 days old)
Trends, month by month
Every indicator for the last 13 months, newest on the left, coloured by the verdict its rule gives for that month. Rows of green that turn neutral and then hatched red are the pattern to watch. Daily market series show the month-to-date average for the current month.
- Healthy
- Neutral
- Warning (hatched)
- Not published
| Indicator | Oct 26 to date | Sep | Aug | Jul | Jun | May | Apr | Mar | Feb | Jan 26 | Dec | Nov | Oct 25 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Healthy Growth & business · Healthy | |||||||||||||
| Real GDP growth | No release | No release | No release | No release | No release | No release | 2.2%, Healthy | No release | No release | 2.5%, Healthy | No release | No release | 0.2%, Warning |
| Industrial production | No release | No release | +1.4%, Healthy | +1.1%, Healthy | +1.3%, Healthy | +1.7%, Healthy | +1.4%, Healthy | +0.7%, Neutral | +0.8%, Neutral | +1.0%, Neutral | +1.2%, Healthy | +1.8%, Healthy | +1.8%, Healthy |
| Durable goods orders | No release | No release | +8.4%, Healthy | +11.8%, Healthy | +7.7%, Healthy | −3.0%, Warning | +17.8%, Healthy | +1.4%, Neutral | +7.6%, Healthy | +9.9%, Healthy | +10.6%, Healthy | +12.5%, Healthy | +4.9%, Healthy |
| Core capital goods orders | No release | No release | +14.1%, Healthy | +13.3%, Healthy | +13.4%, Healthy | +10.9%, Healthy | +10.9%, Healthy | +9.9%, Healthy | +6.2%, Healthy | +4.0%, Healthy | +6.3%, Healthy | +5.8%, Healthy | +6.1%, Healthy |
| Factory new orders (Philadelphia Fed) | No release | +29.2, Healthy | +30.1, Healthy | +37.0, Healthy | +27.3, Healthy | −1.7, Warning | +33.0, Healthy | +8.6, Healthy | +11.7, Healthy | +14.4, Healthy | +5.7, Healthy | −1.6, Warning | +17.7, Healthy |
| Factory workweekHours per week | No release | 42.0, Healthy | 41.8, Healthy | 41.8, Healthy | 41.7, Healthy | 41.6, Healthy | 41.6, Healthy | 41.5, Healthy | 41.6, Healthy | 41.4, Healthy | 41.1, Healthy | 41.3, Healthy | 41.1, Healthy |
| Healthy Jobs · Healthy | |||||||||||||
| Unemployment rate | No release | 4.2%, Healthy | 4.1%, Healthy | 4.1%, Healthy | 4.2%, Neutral | 4.3%, Healthy | 4.3%, Neutral | 4.3%, Neutral | 4.4%, Neutral | 4.3%, Neutral | 4.4%, Neutral | 4.5%, Neutral | No release |
| Jobs added (3-month average) | No release | +51k, Neutral | +51k, Neutral | +28k, Neutral | +81k, Neutral | +142k, Healthy | +69k, Neutral | +73k, Neutral | −4k, Warning | +61k, Neutral | −39k, Warning | −8k, Warning | −45k, Warning |
| Initial jobless claims | No release | 201k, Healthy | 206k, Healthy | 203k, Healthy | 223k, Neutral | 212k, Healthy | 208k, Healthy | 208k, Healthy | 216k, Healthy | 212k, Healthy | 219k, Healthy | 222k, Healthy | 227k, Healthy |
| Job openings | No release | No release | 7.08M, Healthy | 7.33M, Healthy | 7.18M, Neutral | 7.54M, Healthy | 7.58M, Healthy | 6.89M, Neutral | 6.92M, Neutral | 7.24M, Neutral | 6.55M, Warning | 6.85M, Neutral | 7.17M, Neutral |
| Sahm rule indicatorPercentage points | No release | 0.00, Healthy | −0.07, Healthy | −0.03, Healthy | +0.07, Healthy | +0.10, Healthy | +0.13, Healthy | +0.20, Healthy | +0.27, Neutral | +0.30, Neutral | +0.35, Neutral | +0.43, Neutral | No release |
| Mixed Inflation · Mixed | |||||||||||||
| Consumer prices (CPI) | No release | No release | +3.4%, Neutral | +3.3%, Neutral | +3.5%, Neutral | +4.2%, Warning | +3.8%, Warning | +3.3%, Neutral | +2.4%, Healthy | +2.4%, Healthy | +2.7%, Neutral | +2.7%, Neutral | No release |
| Core CPI | No release | No release | +2.4%, Healthy | +2.5%, Healthy | +2.6%, Neutral | +2.8%, Neutral | +2.7%, Neutral | +2.6%, Neutral | +2.5%, Healthy | +2.5%, Neutral | +2.6%, Neutral | +2.6%, Neutral | No release |
| Core PCE prices | No release | No release | +3.0%, Warning | +3.0%, Neutral | +3.0%, Warning | +3.2%, Warning | +3.1%, Warning | +3.1%, Warning | +3.0%, Neutral | +2.9%, Neutral | +2.9%, Neutral | +2.7%, Neutral | +2.7%, Neutral |
| Healthy Consumers · Healthy | |||||||||||||
| Real consumer spending | No release | No release | +2.6%, Healthy | +2.3%, Healthy | +2.7%, Healthy | +2.7%, Healthy | +2.2%, Healthy | +1.9%, Neutral | +2.3%, Healthy | +2.0%, Healthy | +1.5%, Neutral | +2.3%, Healthy | +2.5%, Healthy |
| Real retail sales | No release | No release | +2.6%, Healthy | +1.7%, Healthy | +3.2%, Healthy | +2.9%, Healthy | +1.2%, Healthy | +0.9%, Neutral | +1.7%, Healthy | +0.9%, Neutral | −0.2%, Warning | +0.5%, Neutral | No release |
| Real income excluding benefits | No release | No release | +0.8%, Neutral | +0.9%, Neutral | +1.1%, Neutral | +0.7%, Neutral | +0.2%, Warning | +0.8%, Neutral | +1.3%, Neutral | +1.3%, Neutral | +1.1%, Neutral | +1.4%, Neutral | +1.5%, Healthy |
| Consumer sentiment (Michigan) | No release | No release | 51.7, Healthy | 55.2, Healthy | 49.5, Neutral | 44.8, Warning | 49.8, Warning | 53.3, Neutral | 56.6, Healthy | 56.4, Healthy | 52.9, Neutral | 51.0, Warning | 53.6, Warning |
| Credit card delinquency rate | No release | No release | No release | No release | No release | No release | 2.85%, Healthy | No release | No release | 2.91%, Healthy | No release | No release | 2.95%, Healthy |
| Mixed Housing · Mixed | |||||||||||||
| Building permits | No release | No release | 1.40M, Healthy | 1.43M, Healthy | 1.37M, Neutral | 1.41M, Neutral | 1.42M, Neutral | 1.36M, Neutral | 1.54M, Healthy | 1.39M, Neutral | 1.48M, Healthy | 1.41M, Neutral | 1.42M, Neutral |
| Housing starts | No release | No release | 1.27M, Neutral | 1.31M, Neutral | 1.44M, Healthy | 1.18M, Neutral | 1.41M, Healthy | 1.52M, Healthy | 1.35M, Neutral | 1.39M, Healthy | 1.38M, Neutral | 1.32M, Healthy | 1.27M, Neutral |
| 30-year mortgage rate | 7.34%, Warning | 6.86%, Warning | 6.67%, Neutral | 6.54%, Healthy | 6.49%, Healthy | 6.44%, Healthy | 6.33%, Healthy | 6.18%, Healthy | 6.05%, Healthy | 6.1%, Healthy | 6.19%, Healthy | 6.24%, Healthy | 6.25%, Healthy |
| Healthy Markets & credit · Healthy | |||||||||||||
| S&P 500 vs 200-day average | +7.7%, Healthy | +6.0%, Healthy | +7.9%, Healthy | +6.6%, Healthy | +8.2%, Healthy | +11.0%, Healthy | +7.2%, Healthy | −1.7%, Neutral | +4.9%, Healthy | +7.9%, Healthy | +8.9%, Healthy | +10.9%, Healthy | +11.9%, Healthy |
| High-yield credit spread | 3.12%, Healthy | 2.76%, Healthy | 2.7%, Healthy | 2.74%, Healthy | 2.73%, Healthy | 2.77%, Healthy | 2.93%, Healthy | 3.19%, Healthy | 2.92%, Healthy | 2.74%, Healthy | 2.89%, Healthy | 3.08%, Healthy | 2.92%, Healthy |
| Financial conditions (Chicago Fed) | −0.49, Healthy | −0.53, Healthy | −0.55, Healthy | −0.53, Healthy | −0.51, Healthy | −0.51, Healthy | −0.48, Healthy | −0.47, Healthy | −0.53, Healthy | −0.56, Healthy | −0.52, Healthy | −0.51, Healthy | −0.52, Healthy |
| 10-year minus 3-month yield | +1.05%, Healthy | +0.90%, Healthy | +0.81%, Healthy | +0.73%, Healthy | +0.66%, Healthy | +0.80%, Healthy | +0.62%, Healthy | +0.53%, Healthy | +0.44%, Neutral | +0.55%, Healthy | +0.46%, Neutral | +0.16%, Neutral | +0.08%, Neutral |
| 10-year minus 2-year yield | +0.47%, Healthy | +0.34%, Healthy | +0.47%, Healthy | +0.38%, Healthy | +0.36%, Healthy | +0.49%, Healthy | +0.52%, Healthy | +0.53%, Healthy | +0.65%, Healthy | +0.68%, Healthy | +0.64%, Healthy | +0.54%, Healthy | +0.54%, Healthy |
| Bank funding stress | +0.07%, Healthy | +0.03%, Healthy | +0.10%, Healthy | +0.09%, Healthy | +0.10%, Healthy | +0.12%, Healthy | +0.16%, Healthy | +0.08%, Healthy | +0.06%, Healthy | +0.06%, Healthy | +0.14%, Healthy | +0.09%, Healthy | +0.13%, Healthy |
| Banks tightening business loans | No release | No release | No release | 0.0%, Healthy | No release | No release | +8.1%, Neutral | No release | No release | +5.3%, Neutral | No release | No release | +6.5%, Neutral |
Custom leading economic index
Your weighted leading index. Each month adds up every component’s weight × its reading: the 10-year minus fed funds spread as a level, everything else as its % change from the previous month, with jobless claims counted negatively. A component that has not reported adds nothing, so the newest month can change as releases arrive.
Click any weight to change it; the index, the chart and the summary above update as you type. Weights are not rescaled to add up to 1, and nothing you enter is saved.
- Supports growth
- Flat
- Weighs on growth (hatched)
- Deeper = bigger move than usual
- Not published
| Component | Weight | Sep 26 | Aug 26 | Jul 26 | Jun 26 | May 26 | Apr 26 | Mar 26 | Feb 26 | Jan 26 | Dec 25 | Nov 25 | Oct 25 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-year minus fed funds rateSpread, monthly average | +1.24%, supports growth | +1.05%, supports growth | +0.97%, supports growth | +0.85%, supports growth | +0.86%, supports growth | +0.68%, supports growth | +0.61%, supports growth | +0.49%, supports growth | +0.57%, supports growth | +0.41%, supports growth | +0.22%, supports growth | −0.02%, weighs on growth | |
| Average weekly factory hours% change | +0.48%, supports growth | 0.00%, flat | +0.24%, supports growth | +0.24%, supports growth | 0.00%, flat | +0.24%, supports growth | −0.24%, weighs on growth | +0.48%, supports growth | +0.73%, supports growth | −0.48%, weighs on growth | +0.49%, supports growth | +0.24%, supports growth | |
| Consumer Confidence IndexNot freely published | 0.131 | The Conference Board licenses this index; it counts as blank, as in the original sheet. | |||||||||||
| Consumer sentiment% change | No reading | −6.34%, weighs on growth | +11.52%, supports growth | +10.49%, supports growth | −10.04%, weighs on growth | −6.57%, weighs on growth | −5.83%, weighs on growth | +0.35%, supports growth | +6.62%, supports growth | +3.73%, supports growth | −4.85%, weighs on growth | −2.72%, weighs on growth | |
| New orders, durable goods% change | No reading | −0.07%, weighs on growth | +0.87%, supports growth | +0.58%, supports growth | −4.00%, weighs on growth | +8.51%, supports growth | +1.34%, supports growth | −1.17%, weighs on growth | −0.43%, weighs on growth | −0.91%, weighs on growth | +5.44%, supports growth | −2.09%, weighs on growth | |
| New orders, nondefense capital goods ex aircraft% change | No reading | +1.56%, supports growth | +0.63%, supports growth | +1.66%, supports growth | +1.91%, supports growth | −0.62%, weighs on growth | +3.82%, supports growth | +1.58%, supports growth | −0.34%, weighs on growth | +0.82%, supports growth | +0.86%, supports growth | +0.46%, supports growth | |
| Factory new orders (Philadelphia Fed, in place of ISM)Index, above 0 = growing | +29.2, supports growth | +30.1, supports growth | +37.0, supports growth | +27.3, supports growth | −1.7, weighs on growth | +33.0, supports growth | +8.6, supports growth | +11.7, supports growth | +14.4, supports growth | +5.7, supports growth | −1.6, weighs on growth | +17.7, supports growth | |
| S&P 500% change, month-end close | −0.45%, weighs on growth | +2.62%, supports growth | −0.13%, weighs on growth | −1.06%, weighs on growth | +5.15%, supports growth | +10.42%, supports growth | −5.09%, weighs on growth | −0.87%, weighs on growth | +1.37%, supports growth | −0.05%, weighs on growth | +0.13%, supports growth | +2.27%, supports growth | |
| New building permits% change | No reading | −2.09%, weighs on growth | +4.29%, supports growth | −2.55%, weighs on growth | −0.91%, weighs on growth | +4.40%, supports growth | −11.49%, weighs on growth | +10.55%, supports growth | −6.01%, weighs on growth | +4.81%, supports growth | −0.28%, weighs on growth | −1.80%, weighs on growth | |
| Average weekly jobless claims% change; a rise counts against | −2.67%, supports growth | +1.35%, weighs on growth | −8.65%, supports growth | +5.15%, weighs on growth | +1.85%, weighs on growth | −0.12%, supports growth | −3.59%, supports growth | +1.86%, weighs on growth | −3.40%, supports growth | −1.42%, supports growth | −1.92%, supports growth | −3.10%, supports growth | |
| Custom LEI | 1 | +0.69%, supports growth | +0.10%, supports growth | +1.67%, supports growth | −0.42%, weighs on growth | +0.04%, supports growth | +1.50%, supports growth | −0.65%, weighs on growth | +1.11%, supports growth | +0.10%, supports growth | +0.58%, supports growth | +0.67%, supports growth | +0.20%, supports growth |
| Weight reportedof 0.869 possible | 0.669 | 0.869 | 0.869 | 0.869 | 0.869 | 0.869 | 0.869 | 0.869 | 0.869 | 0.869 | 0.869 | 0.869 | |
Custom LEI over time
The 6-month total smooths out single-month noise. Shaded bands are recessions; choose one under the chart to label it. Choose a line’s name to show or hide it. FRED publishes the S&P 500 from Dec 2016 onward, so earlier months count it as blank.
| Month | Monthly reading | 6-month total |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 2026 | +0.69% | +3.57% |
| Aug 2026 | +0.10% | +2.23% |
| Jul 2026 | +1.67% | +3.25% |
| Jun 2026 | −0.42% | +1.68% |
| May 2026 | +0.04% | +2.68% |
| Apr 2026 | +1.50% | +3.32% |
| Mar 2026 | −0.65% | +2.02% |
| Feb 2026 | +1.11% | +3.40% |
| Jan 2026 | +0.10% | +1.72% |
| Dec 2025 | +0.58% | +2.42% |
| Nov 2025 | +0.68% | +1.12% |
| Oct 2025 | +0.20% | +1.23% |
| Sep 2025 | +0.72% | +0.01% |
| Aug 2025 | −0.56% | −0.09% |
| Jul 2025 | +0.80% | +0.09% |
| Jun 2025 | −0.72% | −0.24% |
| May 2025 | +0.79% | +0.02% |
| Apr 2025 | −1.02% | +0.76% |
| Mar 2025 | +0.63% | +0.95% |
| Feb 2025 | −0.38% | −0.00% |
| Jan 2025 | +0.47% | +0.65% |
| Dec 2024 | −0.46% | −0.08% |
| Nov 2024 | +1.52% | −0.01% |
| Oct 2024 | −0.84% | −2.39% |
| Sep 2024 | −0.32% | −1.83% |
| Aug 2024 | +0.27% | −2.42% |
| Jul 2024 | −0.27% | −2.29% |
| Jun 2024 | −0.38% | −2.56% |
| May 2024 | −0.86% | −2.00% |
| Apr 2024 | −0.28% | −1.42% |
| Mar 2024 | −0.91% | −1.18% |
| Feb 2024 | +0.40% | +0.07% |
| Jan 2024 | −0.54% | −0.73% |
| Dec 2023 | +0.18% | +0.67% |
| Nov 2023 | −0.27% | −1.32% |
| Oct 2023 | −0.04% | −1.14% |
| Sep 2023 | +0.33% | −0.64% |
| Aug 2023 | −0.40% | −2.51% |
| Jul 2023 | +0.86% | −2.10% |
| Jun 2023 | −1.80% | −2.38% |
| May 2023 | −0.09% | −0.96% |
| Apr 2023 | +0.46% | −2.28% |
| Mar 2023 | −1.54% | −2.38% |
| Feb 2023 | +0.02% | +0.04% |
| Jan 2023 | +0.58% | −0.80% |
| Dec 2022 | −0.39% | −1.03% |
| Nov 2022 | −1.41% | −0.53% |
| Oct 2022 | +0.36% | +0.73% |
| Sep 2022 | +0.87% | +0.34% |
| Aug 2022 | −0.82% | +0.62% |
| Jul 2022 | +0.36% | +2.37% |
| Jun 2022 | +0.12% | +1.35% |
| May 2022 | −0.16% | +3.47% |
| Apr 2022 | −0.03% | +6.33% |
| Mar 2022 | +1.16% | +9.44% |
| Feb 2022 | +0.92% | +7.87% |
| Jan 2022 | −0.66% | +8.23% |
| Dec 2021 | +2.24% | +10.31% |
| Nov 2021 | +2.70% | +9.70% |
| Oct 2021 | +3.08% | +9.23% |
Yield curve
An inversion month is one whose average spread was below zero; inversions a few months apart count as one. A recession is linked to an inversion if it began between the inversion’s start and two years after its end.
10-year minus 3-month
Latest spread+0.99%Not inverted · Oct 9
Last inverted361 days agoOct 16, 2025
Since Jan 1982, 4 recessions began an average of 12.5 months (about 380 days) after this spread first inverted, ranging from 9 to 17 months.
The latest inversion began in Nov 2022, 47 months ago, and ended in Aug 2025. No recession has followed yet; that is already longer than any lead on record (17 months).
| Inverted | Recession began | Months after it began | After it ended |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 2022 – Aug 2025 | None within 2 years | — | — |
| Feb 2020 | Mar 2020 | 1 | 1 |
| May 2019 – Sep 2019 | Mar 2020 | 10 | 6 |
| Aug 2006 – May 2007 | Jan 2008 | 17 | 8 |
| Jul 2000 – Jan 2001 | Apr 2001 | 9 | 3 |
| Jun 1989 – Dec 1989 | Aug 1990 | 14 | 8 |
10-year minus 2-year
Latest spread+0.44%Not inverted · Oct 9
Last inverted767 days agoSep 5, 2024
Since Jun 1976, 5 recessions began an average of 16.8 months (about 511 days) after this spread first inverted, ranging from 11 to 23 months.
The latest inversion began in Jul 2022, 51 months ago, and ended in Aug 2024. No recession has followed yet; that is already longer than any lead on record (23 months).
| Inverted | Recession began | Months after it began | After it ended |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 2022 – Aug 2024 | None within 2 years | — | — |
| Feb 2006 – May 2007 | Jan 2008 | 23 | 8 |
| Feb 2000 – Dec 2000 | Apr 2001 | 14 | 4 |
| Jun 1998 | None within 2 years | — | — |
| Mar 1990 | Aug 1990 | 5 | 5 |
| Jan 1989 – Sep 1989 | Aug 1990 | 19 | 11 |
| Sep 1980 – Jun 1982 | Aug 1981 | 11 | -10 |
| Sep 1978 – Apr 1980 | Feb 1980 | 17 | -2 |
Yield curves abroad
0 of 9 inverted10-year government bond yield minus the 3-month interbank rate, monthly averages from the OECD. Germany, France and Italy share the euro-area 3-month rate.
| Country | Month | 10-year | 3-month | Spread | Inverted |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| United States | Aug 2026 | 4.68% | 3.82% | +0.86% | No |
| Canada | Aug 2026 | 3.67% | 2.28% | +1.40% | No |
| United Kingdom | Jan 2026 (not current) | 4.45% | 3.71% | +0.74% | Out of date |
| Germany | Aug 2026 | 3.18% | 2.51% | +0.67% | No |
| France | Aug 2026 | 4.00% | 2.51% | +1.49% | No |
| Italy | Aug 2026 | 3.99% | 2.51% | +1.47% | No |
| Japan | Jul 2026 | 2.79% | 1.46% | +1.33% | No |
| Australia | Aug 2026 | 5.01% | 4.51% | +0.50% | No |
| South Korea | Aug 2026 | 4.29% | 2.97% | +1.32% | No |
| Switzerland | Aug 2026 | 0.47% | -0.04% | +0.52% | No |
Rates and markets
Fed funds (effective)3.88%Oct 8, 2026
SOFR3.87%Oct 8, 2026 · Secured overnight financing rate, which replaced LIBOR
3-month T-bill4.05%Oct 8, 2026
2-year Treasury4.75%Oct 8, 2026
10-year Treasury5.22%Oct 8, 2026
30-year mortgage7.40%Oct 8, 2026 · Freddie Mac weekly survey
High-yield spread3.15%Oct 8, 2026 · ICE BofA US High Yield option-adjusted spread
S&P 5007,811.54Oct 9, 2026 · 200-day average 7,250.63 (+7.7%)
Jobless claims (latest week)197kOct 3, 2026
Chicago Fed NFCI−0.49Oct 2, 2026 · Zero is average; below zero is looser than average
Every indicator and its rule
Thresholds are fixed and published here so a verdict can be checked by hand. They are reasonable cut-offs, not forecasts.
| Indicator | What it is | Rule | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
Real GDP growthGrowth & business | The economy’s total output after inflation, quarterly, as an annual rate. About 2% is the long-run trend. | Healthy when it is 2.0% or more; warning below 1.0%. | FRED |
Industrial productionGrowth & business | Output of factories, mines and utilities compared with a year earlier. | Healthy when the change from a year earlier is +1.0% or more; warning below 0.0%. | FRED |
Durable goods ordersGrowth & business | New orders for goods meant to last three years or more, compared with a year earlier. Not adjusted for inflation. | Healthy when the change from a year earlier is +2.0% or more; warning below 0.0%. | FRED |
Core capital goods ordersGrowth & business | Orders for business equipment excluding defense and aircraft, compared with a year earlier: a read on business investment plans. | Healthy when the change from a year earlier is +2.0% or more; warning below 0.0%. | FRED |
Factory new orders (Philadelphia Fed)Growth & business | Share of surveyed manufacturers reporting more new orders minus the share reporting fewer. Above zero means orders are growing. | Healthy when it is +5.0 or more; warning below 0.0. | FRED |
Factory workweekGrowth & business | Average weekly hours of factory workers. Employers usually cut hours before they cut jobs. | Healthy when the change from a year earlier is 0.0 hrs or more; warning below −0.3 hrs. | FRED |
Unemployment rateJobs | Share of people looking for work who cannot find it. A rise of half a point in a year has often come with recessions. | Healthy when the change from a year earlier is 0.00 pts or less; warning at +0.50 pts or more. | FRED |
Jobs added (3-month average)Jobs | Net jobs added each month by employers, averaged over three months to smooth out noise. | Healthy when it is +100k or more; warning below 0k. | FRED |
Initial jobless claimsJobs | New applications for unemployment benefits, a weekly count averaged by month. Judged against its own 6-month average. | Healthy when the gap to its 6-month average is 0.0% or less; warning at +5.0% or more. | FRED |
Job openingsJobs | Positions employers are trying to fill, compared with a year earlier. | Healthy when the change from a year earlier is 0.0% or more; warning below −10.0%. | FRED |
Sahm rule indicatorJobs | How far the 3-month average unemployment rate has risen above its low of the past year. Until 2024, readings of 0.5 or more came only around recessions; it reached 0.57 in 2024 without one. | Healthy when it is +0.20 pts or less; warning at +0.50 pts or more. | FRED |
Consumer prices (CPI)Inflation | Prices of what households buy, compared with a year earlier. | Healthy when the change from a year earlier is +2.5% or less; warning at +3.5% or more. | FRED |
Core CPIInflation | CPI without food and energy, whose prices swing the most. A better guide to where inflation is heading. | Healthy when the change from a year earlier is +2.5% or less; warning at +3.5% or more. | FRED |
Core PCE pricesInflation | The measure the Federal Reserve targets at 2%. It usually runs a little below CPI. | Healthy when the change from a year earlier is +2.5% or less; warning at +3.0% or more. | FRED |
Real consumer spendingConsumers | What households spend on goods and services after inflation, compared with a year earlier. About two-thirds of the economy. | Healthy when the change from a year earlier is +2.0% or more; warning below +1.0%. | FRED |
Real retail salesConsumers | Sales at stores and restaurants after inflation, compared with a year earlier. | Healthy when the change from a year earlier is +1.0% or more; warning below 0.0%. | FRED |
Real income excluding benefitsConsumers | Household income after inflation, leaving out government payments, compared with a year earlier. Used to date recessions. | Healthy when the change from a year earlier is +1.5% or more; warning below +0.5%. | FRED |
Consumer sentiment (Michigan)Consumers | How households feel about their finances and the economy. Judged against its own 6-month average; FRED publishes it a month late. | Healthy when the gap to its 6-month average is 0.0% or more; warning below −5.0%. | FRED |
Credit card delinquency rateConsumers | Share of credit card balances at banks 30 or more days overdue, quarterly, compared with a year earlier. | Healthy when the change from a year earlier is 0.00 pts or less; warning at +0.50 pts or more. | FRED |
Building permitsHousing | Permits for new homes at an annual rate, compared with a year earlier. Builders pull permits before they start work. | Healthy when the change from a year earlier is 0.0% or more; warning below −10.0%. | FRED |
Housing startsHousing | New homes begun at an annual rate, compared with a year earlier. | Healthy when the change from a year earlier is 0.0% or more; warning below −10.0%. | FRED |
30-year mortgage rateHousing | Average rate on a new 30-year fixed mortgage (Freddie Mac weekly survey), compared with a year earlier. | Healthy when the change from a year earlier is 0.00 pts or less; warning at +0.50 pts or more. | FRED |
S&P 500 vs 200-day averageMarkets & credit | How far the index closed the month above or below its average close over the previous 200 trading days. Below it is a common sign of a downtrend. | Healthy when it is 0.0% or more; warning below −2.0%. | FRED |
High-yield credit spreadMarkets & credit | Extra yield investors demand to lend to riskier companies instead of the government. It widens when investors fear defaults. | Healthy when it is 4.0% or less; warning at 5.5% or more. | FRED |
Financial conditions (Chicago Fed)Markets & credit | An index of over 100 measures of risk, credit and leverage. Zero is average; above zero means tighter than average. | Healthy when it is −0.3 or less; warning at 0.0 or more. | FRED |
10-year minus 3-month yieldMarkets & credit | Normally long-term rates are higher than short-term ones. When they are lower (inverted), a recession has often followed. | Healthy when it is +0.50% or more; warning below 0.00%. | FRED |
10-year minus 2-year yieldMarkets & credit | The most quoted yield-curve measure. Below zero means inverted. | Healthy when it is +0.25% or more; warning below 0.00%. | FRED |
Bank funding stressMarkets & credit | What highly rated financial companies pay to borrow for 90 days, minus the 3-month Treasury bill rate. It replaces the discontinued TED spread. | Healthy when it is +0.25% or less; warning at +0.50% or more. | FRED |
Banks tightening business loansMarkets & credit | Share of banks tightening lending standards for business loans minus the share easing them, from the Fed’s quarterly survey. | Healthy when it is 0.0% or less; warning at +10.0% or more. | FRED |
Sources & update policy
All 61 series come from FRED, the St. Louis Fed’s public database, which republishes releases from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, Census Bureau, BEA, Federal Reserve, University of Michigan, ICE, Freddie Mac, S&P Dow Jones Indices and the OECD. The site keeps a saved copy and never makes you wait on FRED. Daily market series are checked every 4 hours, weekly series every 12 hours, and monthly and quarterly releases once a day. Last check: Oct 12, 12:35 PM EDT.
Licensed data is replaced with free equivalents: the Philadelphia Fed’s new orders index stands in for ISM new orders, and commercial paper minus Treasury bills stands in for the TED spread, which ended with LIBOR in 2022. The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index is not freely published, so its weight adds nothing. Figures are revised after release; FRED shows the current vintage, so past months can differ from what was first reported.
Not investment advice
Economic indicators describe the past and give imperfect signals about the future. Many warnings have come without a recession, and recessions have begun without some of them. For education only.