Will the Fed raise or cut rates?
The odds markets give each outcome at the Federal Reserve’s coming meetings, worked out from fed funds futures and set beside Kalshi’s betting markets, with every rate move so far and the news behind each sharp change in expectations.
Kalshi could not be reached. Betting-market odds may be out of date.
What will the Fed do on Oct 28, 2026?
Fed funds futures price a 78% chance of no change; bettors on Kalshi put it at 81%. The market expects the effective rate to be 3.94% after the meeting, +5.5 bp from today.
- Cut 50 bp or more
- Cut 25 bp
- Hold
- Hike 25 bp
- Hike 50 bp or more
Futures: CME FedWatch method on 30-Day Fed Funds futures (closes to Oct 12, 2026, delayed quotes via Yahoo Finance). Kalshi: the midpoint of each market’s bid and ask, scaled to add up to 100%.
Where the target range will be
| Meeting | 3.75–4.00%now | 4.00–4.25% | 4.25–4.50% | 4.50–4.75% | 4.75–5.00% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 28, 2026 | 78% | 22% | |||
| Dec 9, 2026 | 91% | 9% | |||
| Jan 27, 2027 | 52% | 48% | |||
| Mar 17, 2027 | 81% | 19% | |||
| Apr 28, 2027 | 38% | 62% | |||
| Jun 9, 2027 | 98% | 2% | |||
| Jul 28, 2027 | 80% | 20% | |||
| Sep 15, 2027 | 68% | 32% |
Each row is a meeting; each cell is the chance the target range ends that meeting at that level, from fed funds futures. Deeper colour means likelier: warm above today’s range, cool below, grey unchanged.
What each meeting decides
| Meeting | Cut ≥50 | Cut 25 | Hold | Hike 25 | Hike ≥50 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 2026 | 78% | 22% | |||
| Dec 2026 | 13% | 87% | |||
| Jan 2027 | 61% | 39% | |||
| Mar 2027 | 29% | 71% | |||
| Apr 2027 | 57% | 43% | |||
| Jun 2027 | 60% | 40% | |||
| Jul 2027 | 82% | 18% | |||
| Sep 2027 | 88% | 12% |
The move at each meeting alone, given what is priced before it. Switch the source to compare the futures market with Kalshi’s bettors.
Fed funds rate history
Scroll over the chart to zoom in or out.
| Effective | New target | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 17, 2026 | 3.75–4.00% | +25 bp |
| Dec 11, 2025 | 3.50–3.75% | −25 bp |
| Oct 30, 2025 | 3.75–4.00% | −25 bp |
| Sep 18, 2025 | 4.00–4.25% | −25 bp |
| Dec 19, 2024 | 4.25–4.50% | −25 bp |
| Nov 8, 2024 | 4.50–4.75% | −25 bp |
| Sep 19, 2024 | 4.75–5.00% | −50 bp |
| Jul 27, 2023 | 5.25–5.50% | +25 bp |
| May 4, 2023 | 5.00–5.25% | +25 bp |
| Mar 23, 2023 | 4.75–5.00% | +25 bp |
| Feb 2, 2023 | 4.50–4.75% | +25 bp |
| Dec 15, 2022 | 4.25–4.50% | +50 bp |
| Nov 3, 2022 | 3.75–4.00% | +75 bp |
| Sep 22, 2022 | 3.00–3.25% | +75 bp |
| Jul 28, 2022 | 2.25–2.50% | +75 bp |
| Jun 16, 2022 | 1.50–1.75% | +75 bp |
| May 5, 2022 | 0.75–1.00% | +50 bp |
| Mar 17, 2022 | 0.25–0.50% | +25 bp |
| Mar 16, 2020 | 0.00–0.25% | −100 bp |
| Mar 4, 2020 | 1.00–1.25% | −50 bp |
| Oct 31, 2019 | 1.50–1.75% | −25 bp |
| Sep 19, 2019 | 1.75–2.00% | −25 bp |
| Aug 1, 2019 | 2.00–2.25% | −25 bp |
| Dec 20, 2018 | 2.25–2.50% | +25 bp |
| Sep 27, 2018 | 2.00–2.25% | +25 bp |
| Jun 14, 2018 | 1.75–2.00% | +25 bp |
| Mar 22, 2018 | 1.50–1.75% | +25 bp |
| Dec 14, 2017 | 1.25–1.50% | +25 bp |
| Jun 15, 2017 | 1.00–1.25% | +25 bp |
| Mar 16, 2017 | 0.75–1.00% | +25 bp |
| Dec 14, 2016 | 0.50–0.75% | +25 bp |
| Dec 16, 2015 | 0.25–0.50% | +25 bp |
| Dec 16, 2008 | 0.00–0.25% | −87.5 bp |
| Oct 29, 2008 | 1.00% | −50 bp |
| Oct 8, 2008 | 1.50% | −50 bp |
| Apr 30, 2008 | 2.00% | −25 bp |
| Mar 18, 2008 | 2.25% | −75 bp |
| Jan 30, 2008 | 3.00% | −50 bp |
| Jan 22, 2008 | 3.50% | −75 bp |
| Dec 11, 2007 | 4.25% | −25 bp |
| Oct 31, 2007 | 4.50% | −25 bp |
| Sep 18, 2007 | 4.75% | −50 bp |
| Jun 29, 2006 | 5.25% | +25 bp |
| May 10, 2006 | 5.00% | +25 bp |
| Mar 28, 2006 | 4.75% | +25 bp |
| Jan 31, 2006 | 4.50% | +25 bp |
| Dec 13, 2005 | 4.25% | +25 bp |
| Nov 1, 2005 | 4.00% | +25 bp |
| Sep 20, 2005 | 3.75% | +25 bp |
| Aug 9, 2005 | 3.50% | +25 bp |
| Jun 30, 2005 | 3.25% | +25 bp |
| May 3, 2005 | 3.00% | +25 bp |
| Mar 22, 2005 | 2.75% | +25 bp |
| Feb 2, 2005 | 2.50% | +25 bp |
| Dec 14, 2004 | 2.25% | +25 bp |
| Nov 10, 2004 | 2.00% | +25 bp |
| Sep 21, 2004 | 1.75% | +25 bp |
| Aug 10, 2004 | 1.50% | +25 bp |
| Jun 30, 2004 | 1.25% | +25 bp |
| Jun 25, 2003 | 1.00% | −25 bp |
| Nov 6, 2002 | 1.25% | −50 bp |
| Dec 11, 2001 | 1.75% | −25 bp |
| Nov 6, 2001 | 2.00% | −50 bp |
| Oct 2, 2001 | 2.50% | −50 bp |
| Sep 17, 2001 | 3.00% | −50 bp |
| Aug 21, 2001 | 3.50% | −25 bp |
| Jun 27, 2001 | 3.75% | −25 bp |
| May 15, 2001 | 4.00% | −50 bp |
| Apr 18, 2001 | 4.50% | −50 bp |
| Mar 20, 2001 | 5.00% | −50 bp |
| Jan 31, 2001 | 5.50% | −50 bp |
| Jan 3, 2001 | 6.00% | −50 bp |
| May 16, 2000 | 6.50% | +50 bp |
| Mar 21, 2000 | 6.00% | +25 bp |
| Feb 2, 2000 | 5.75% | +25 bp |
| Nov 16, 1999 | 5.50% | +25 bp |
| Aug 24, 1999 | 5.25% | +25 bp |
| Jun 30, 1999 | 5.00% | +25 bp |
| Nov 17, 1998 | 4.75% | −25 bp |
| Oct 15, 1998 | 5.00% | −25 bp |
| Sep 29, 1998 | 5.25% | −25 bp |
| Mar 25, 1997 | 5.50% | +25 bp |
| Jan 31, 1996 | 5.25% | −25 bp |
| Dec 19, 1995 | 5.50% | −25 bp |
| Jul 6, 1995 | 5.75% | −25 bp |
| Feb 1, 1995 | 6.00% | +50 bp |
| Nov 15, 1994 | 5.50% | +75 bp |
| Aug 16, 1994 | 4.75% | +50 bp |
| May 17, 1994 | 4.25% | +50 bp |
| Apr 18, 1994 | 3.75% | +25 bp |
| Mar 22, 1994 | 3.50% | +25 bp |
| Feb 4, 1994 | 3.25% | +25 bp |
| Sep 4, 1992 | 3.00% | −25 bp |
| Jul 2, 1992 | 3.25% | −50 bp |
| Apr 9, 1992 | 3.75% | −25 bp |
| Dec 20, 1991 | 4.00% | −50 bp |
| Dec 6, 1991 | 4.50% | −25 bp |
| Nov 6, 1991 | 4.75% | −25 bp |
| Oct 31, 1991 | 5.00% | −25 bp |
| Sep 13, 1991 | 5.25% | −25 bp |
| Aug 6, 1991 | 5.50% | −25 bp |
| Apr 30, 1991 | 5.75% | −25 bp |
| Mar 8, 1991 | 6.00% | −25 bp |
| Feb 1, 1991 | 6.25% | −50 bp |
| Jan 9, 1991 | 6.75% | −25 bp |
| Dec 19, 1990 | 7.00% | −25 bp |
| Dec 7, 1990 | 7.25% | −25 bp |
| Nov 14, 1990 | 7.50% | −25 bp |
| Oct 29, 1990 | 7.75% | −25 bp |
| Jul 13, 1990 | 8.00% | −25 bp |
| Dec 20, 1989 | 8.25% | −25 bp |
| Nov 6, 1989 | 8.50% | −25 bp |
| Oct 19, 1989 | 8.75% | −31.3 bp |
| Jul 27, 1989 | 9.06% | −25 bp |
| Jul 7, 1989 | 9.31% | −25 bp |
| Jun 6, 1989 | 9.56% | −25 bp |
| May 17, 1989 | 9.81% | +6.3 bp |
| Feb 24, 1989 | 9.75% | +43.8 bp |
| Feb 14, 1989 | 9.31% | +18.8 bp |
| Feb 9, 1989 | 9.13% | +12.5 bp |
| Jan 5, 1989 | 9.00% | +31.3 bp |
| Dec 15, 1988 | 8.69% | +31.3 bp |
| Nov 22, 1988 | 8.38% | +6.3 bp |
| Nov 17, 1988 | 8.31% | +18.8 bp |
| Aug 9, 1988 | 8.13% | +37.5 bp |
| Aug 8, 1988 | 7.75% | +6.3 bp |
| Jul 19, 1988 | 7.69% | +18.8 bp |
| Jul 1, 1988 | 7.50% | +6.3 bp |
| Jun 22, 1988 | 7.44% | +18.8 bp |
| May 25, 1988 | 7.25% | +25 bp |
| May 9, 1988 | 7.00% | +25 bp |
| Mar 30, 1988 | 6.75% | +25 bp |
| Feb 11, 1988 | 6.50% | −12.5 bp |
| Jan 28, 1988 | 6.63% | −18.8 bp |
| Nov 4, 1987 | 6.81% | −50 bp |
| Sep 24, 1987 | 7.31% | +6.3 bp |
| Sep 4, 1987 | 7.25% | +37.5 bp |
| Sep 3, 1987 | 6.88% | +12.5 bp |
| Aug 27, 1987 | 6.75% | +12.5 bp |
| Jul 2, 1987 | 6.63% | −12.5 bp |
| May 22, 1987 | 6.75% | +25 bp |
| Apr 30, 1987 | 6.50% | +50 bp |
| Jan 5, 1987 | 6.00% | +12.5 bp |
| Aug 21, 1986 | 5.88% | −50 bp |
| Jul 11, 1986 | 6.38% | −50 bp |
| Jun 5, 1986 | 6.88% | +6.3 bp |
| May 22, 1986 | 6.81% | +6.3 bp |
| Apr 21, 1986 | 6.75% | −56.3 bp |
| Apr 2, 1986 | 7.31% | +6.3 bp |
| Mar 7, 1986 | 7.25% | −50 bp |
| Dec 18, 1985 | 7.75% | −25 bp |
| Sep 6, 1985 | 8.00% | +18.8 bp |
| Aug 21, 1985 | 7.81% | +6.3 bp |
| Jul 25, 1985 | 7.75% | +6.3 bp |
| Jul 11, 1985 | 7.69% | −6.3 bp |
| May 20, 1985 | 7.75% | −50 bp |
| Apr 25, 1985 | 8.25% | −25 bp |
| Mar 28, 1985 | 8.50% | +12.5 bp |
| Feb 14, 1985 | 8.38% | +12.5 bp |
| Jan 24, 1985 | 8.25% | +12.5 bp |
| Dec 24, 1984 | 8.13% | −37.5 bp |
| Dec 19, 1984 | 8.50% | −25 bp |
| Dec 6, 1984 | 8.75% | −25 bp |
| Nov 23, 1984 | 9.00% | −50 bp |
| Nov 8, 1984 | 9.50% | −50 bp |
| Oct 18, 1984 | 10.00% | −50 bp |
| Oct 11, 1984 | 10.50% | −50 bp |
| Sep 27, 1984 | 11.00% | −25 bp |
| Sep 20, 1984 | 11.25% | −25 bp |
| Aug 9, 1984 | 11.50% | +25 bp |
| Jul 19, 1984 | 11.25% | +25 bp |
| Jul 5, 1984 | 11.00% | +50 bp |
| Mar 29, 1984 | 10.50% | +112.5 bp |
| Sep 15, 1983 | 9.38% | −12.5 bp |
| Aug 17, 1983 | 9.50% | −6.3 bp |
| Aug 11, 1983 | 9.56% | +12.5 bp |
| Jul 20, 1983 | 9.44% | +18.8 bp |
| Jul 14, 1983 | 9.25% | +25 bp |
| Jun 24, 1983 | 9.00% | +25 bp |
| May 25, 1983 | 8.75% | +12.5 bp |
| Mar 31, 1983 | 8.63% | +12.5 bp |
| Dec 14, 1982 | 8.50% | −50 bp |
| Nov 19, 1982 | 9.00% | −50 bp |
| Oct 7, 1982 | 9.50% | −50 bp |
| Oct 1, 1982 | 10.00% | −25 bp |
Pins above the date axis mark the days the expected rate after one of the next 3 meetings jumped by 7.5 bp or more (a 30-point swing in the odds of a 25 bp move) before that meeting: amber when more hikes were priced, teal when more cuts were. Point at or tap one for the news behind it, found by Gemini with Google Search.
The Fed sets a target: a single rate from 1982 (where FRED’s record of it begins) and, since December 2008, a range 0.25 points wide, drawn here by its top. The effective rate is what banks actually paid each other overnight. The 2 year Treasury yield is the bond market’s view of where rates will average over the next two years: above the target, it expects hikes; below, cuts.
| Effective | Move | New target | Previous |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 17, 2026 | Hike +25 bp | 3.75–4.00% | 3.50–3.75% |
| Dec 11, 2025 | Cut −25 bp | 3.50–3.75% | 3.75–4.00% |
| Oct 30, 2025 | Cut −25 bp | 3.75–4.00% | 4.00–4.25% |
| Sep 18, 2025 | Cut −25 bp | 4.00–4.25% | 4.25–4.50% |
| Dec 19, 2024 | Cut −25 bp | 4.25–4.50% | 4.50–4.75% |
| Nov 8, 2024 | Cut −25 bp | 4.50–4.75% | 4.75–5.00% |
| Sep 19, 2024 | Cut −50 bp | 4.75–5.00% | 5.25–5.50% |
| Jul 27, 2023 | Hike +25 bp | 5.25–5.50% | 5.00–5.25% |
Expected path of the rate
| Meeting | Today | A week ago | A month ago | Kalshi |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 28, 2026 | 3.94% | 3.94% | 3.97% | 3.92% |
| Dec 9, 2026 | 4.15% | 4.15% | 4.14% | 4.11% |
| Jan 27, 2027 | 4.25% | 4.25% | 4.23% | 4.18% |
| Mar 17, 2027 | 4.43% | 4.42% | 4.38% | 4.29% |
| Apr 28, 2027 | 4.54% | 4.53% | 4.45% | 4.29% |
| Jun 9, 2027 | 4.63% | 4.64% | 4.52% | 4.34% |
| Jul 28, 2027 | 4.68% | 4.68% | 4.55% | 4.38% |
| Sep 15, 2027 | 4.71% | 4.74% | 4.57% | 4.38% |
A line that has risen since last month means the market now expects more hikes (or fewer cuts). Kalshi’s path adds up each meeting’s expected move from today’s rate.
Odds for Oct 2026 over time
| Date | Hike, futures | Hike, Kalshi | Cut, Kalshi |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 12, 2026 | 22% | 17% | 1% |
| Oct 2, 2026 | 20% | 19% | 1% |
| Sep 22, 2026 | 56% | 51% | 1% |
| Sep 12, 2026 | — | 38% | 3% |
| Sep 2, 2026 | 30% | 29% | 4% |
| Aug 23, 2026 | — | 23% | 5% |
| Aug 13, 2026 | 22% | 24% | 6% |
| Aug 3, 2026 | 25% | 23% | 9% |
| Jul 24, 2026 | — | 33% | 9% |
| Jul 14, 2026 | — | 23% | 10% |
| Jul 4, 2026 | — | 13% | 17% |
| Jun 24, 2026 | — | 29% | 12% |
| Jun 14, 2026 | — | 20% | 15% |
| Jun 4, 2026 | — | 33% | 15% |
| May 25, 2026 | — | 13% | 12% |
| May 15, 2026 | — | 10% | 14% |
| May 5, 2026 | — | 7% | 27% |
| Apr 24, 2026 | — | — | — |
| Apr 14, 2026 | — | 4% | 21% |
| Apr 4, 2026 | — | 5% | 24% |
| Mar 25, 2026 | — | 7% | 24% |
| Mar 15, 2026 | — | 5% | 25% |
| Mar 4, 2026 | — | 1% | 26% |
| Feb 21, 2026 | — | 4% | 27% |
| Feb 8, 2026 | — | 23% | 30% |
| Jan 29, 2026 | — | 5% | 28% |
| Jan 19, 2026 | — | 5% | 27% |
| Jan 9, 2026 | — | 5% | 27% |
| Dec 30, 2025 | — | 5% | 27% |
| Dec 20, 2025 | — | 5% | 28% |
| Dec 10, 2025 | — | 5% | 28% |
| Nov 30, 2025 | — | 3% | 29% |
| Nov 20, 2025 | — | 3% | 29% |
| Nov 10, 2025 | — | 3% | 29% |
| Oct 31, 2025 | — | 3% | 29% |
| Oct 21, 2025 | — | 3% | 29% |
| Oct 11, 2025 | — | 4% | 29% |
Kalshi lists each meeting about a year ahead. Futures can price a meeting’s own move only once every contract since the previous meeting is still listed, so their line starts later; it lengthens as this site keeps each day’s closes.
Expectations over time
| Date | After Oct 2026 | After Dec 2026 | After Jan 2027 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 12, 2026 | 3.94% | 4.15% | 4.25% |
| Sep 28, 2026 | 4.05% | 4.27% | 4.40% |
| Sep 14, 2026 | 3.98% | 4.15% | 4.24% |
| Aug 28, 2026 | 3.85% | 4.01% | 4.08% |
| Aug 14, 2026 | 3.77% | 3.86% | 3.91% |
| Jul 31, 2026 | 3.88% | 3.99% | 4.05% |
| Jul 17, 2026 | 3.85% | 3.94% | 3.98% |
| Jul 2, 2026 | 3.84% | 3.94% | 3.97% |
| Jun 17, 2026 | 3.85% | 3.96% | 4.00% |
| Jun 3, 2026 | 3.74% | 3.82% | 3.87% |
| May 19, 2026 | 3.76% | 3.84% | 3.89% |
| May 5, 2026 | 3.66% | 3.71% | 3.73% |
| Apr 21, 2026 | 3.58% | 3.55% | 3.54% |
| Apr 7, 2026 | 3.65% | 3.62% | 3.60% |
| Mar 23, 2026 | 3.66% | 3.62% | 3.62% |
| Mar 9, 2026 | 3.34% | 3.26% | 3.25% |
| Feb 23, 2026 | 3.15% | 3.05% | 3.02% |
| Feb 6, 2026 | 3.14% | 3.08% | 3.08% |
| Jan 23, 2026 | 3.25% | 3.20% | 3.20% |
| Jan 8, 2026 | 3.12% | 3.07% | 3.06% |
| Dec 23, 2025 | 3.13% | 3.10% | 3.10% |
| Dec 9, 2025 | 3.19% | 3.15% | 3.15% |
| Nov 24, 2025 | 3.02% | 2.96% | 2.94% |
| Nov 10, 2025 | 3.11% | 3.07% | 3.05% |
| Oct 27, 2025 | 2.98% | 2.95% | 2.94% |
| Oct 13, 2025 | 2.94% | 2.90% | 2.88% |
| Sep 29, 2025 | 3.11% | 3.07% | 3.04% |
| Sep 15, 2025 | 2.92% | 2.89% | 2.85% |
| Aug 29, 2025 | 2.99% | 2.94% | 2.91% |
| Aug 15, 2025 | 3.13% | 3.08% | 3.04% |
| Aug 1, 2025 | 3.03% | 2.98% | 2.94% |
| Jul 18, 2025 | 3.19% | 3.16% | 3.14% |
| Jul 4, 2025 | 3.18% | 3.15% | 3.13% |
| Jun 20, 2025 | 3.21% | 3.21% | 3.17% |
| Jun 5, 2025 | 3.25% | 3.25% | 3.23% |
| May 21, 2025 | 3.37% | 3.37% | 3.36% |
| May 7, 2025 | 3.08% | 3.11% | 3.10% |
| Apr 23, 2025 | 3.21% | 3.29% | 3.30% |
| Apr 8, 2025 | 3.08% | 2.88% | 2.97% |
| Mar 25, 2025 | 3.50% | 3.28% | 3.38% |
| Mar 11, 2025 | 3.44% | 3.23% | 3.32% |
| Feb 25, 2025 | 3.67% | 3.45% | 3.54% |
| Feb 10, 2025 | 3.92% | 3.70% | 3.79% |
| Jan 27, 2025 | 3.83% | 3.52% | 3.65% |
| Jan 10, 2025 | 4.08% | 3.77% | 3.90% |
| Dec 26, 2024 | 3.96% | 3.66% | 3.77% |
| Dec 11, 2024 | 3.71% | 3.40% | 3.52% |
| Nov 26, 2024 | 3.83% | 3.52% | 3.64% |
| Nov 12, 2024 | 3.92% | 3.62% | 3.73% |
| Oct 29, 2024 | 3.56% | 3.45% | 3.52% |
| Oct 15, 2024 | 3.37% | 3.40% | 3.42% |
What the market expected the rate to be after each coming meeting, on each day of the last two years. Pins on the rate history chart mark the sharp one-day repricings and the news behind them.
How the betting market called past meetings
| Meeting | Decision | Day before | Month before |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 16, 2026 | Hike 25 bp | 87% | 29% |
| Jul 29, 2026 | Hold | 73% | 80% |
| Jun 17, 2026 | Hold | 98% | 95% |
| Apr 29, 2026 | Hold | 98% | 97% |
| Mar 18, 2026 | Hold | 98% | 90% |
| Jan 28, 2026 | Hold | 98% | 84% |
| Dec 10, 2025 | Cut 25 bp | 96% | 70% |
| Oct 29, 2025 | Cut 25 bp | 98% | 83% |
The chance Kalshi’s market gave the decision the Fed actually took, the day before and about a month before the meeting.
How the probabilities are worked out
A 30-Day Fed Funds futures contract pays out on the average effective fed funds rate over one calendar month, and its price is 100 minus that average: a price of 95.95 means the market expects 4.05%. A meeting splits its month into days at the old rate and days at the new one, so knowing the rate going in, the month’s average gives the rate coming out. Where the next month has no meeting, its contract gives the post-meeting rate directly, which is more reliable after a late-month meeting. The Fed moves in steps of 0.25 percentage points (25 basis points), so an expected move of +17 bp is read as a 68% chance of +25 bp and a 32% chance of no change. This is the method of CME’s FedWatch tool; CME’s own figures can differ slightly because it uses official settlement prices and its own rate assumptions.
Kalshi is a regulated prediction market where people bet on each meeting’s outcome; a contract trading at 70¢ is roughly a 70% chance. It is a smaller market than futures, and far-off meetings trade thinly, so its odds there are noisier.
Sources: effective fed funds rate, target range and 2 year Treasury yield from FRED; 30-Day Fed Funds futures (CBOT) delayed closes via Yahoo Finance; Kalshi’s Fed decision markets via its public API; meeting dates from the Federal Reserve. Updated hourly. This is market data, not a forecast or advice.