How expensive is the stock market?
The Shiller PE compares the S&P 500 with a decade of inflation-adjusted earnings. See where it stands today against every month since 1881.
Strongly overvalued
The S&P 500’s Shiller PE is 41.17 (live estimate), +3.1σ from its 1881–2026 mean of 17.80. 99% of months on record were lower.
- Strongly undervalued
- Undervalued
- Fairly valued
- Overvalued
- Strongly overvalued
Fairly valued is within one standard deviation (σ = 7.64) of the mean; overvalued or undervalued is one to two away; strongly is two or more.
Since Jan 1881
Shiller PE ratio by month
Shaded bands mark eras in market history. Point at one, or choose its years under the chart, to read what was happening. The faint grey line behind is the S&P 500 on its own logarithmic scale with no axis, so read its shape, not its height against the Shiller PE. Point at a month to see what the S&P 500 returned over the following five years, with dividends reinvested; the last five years show a dash because that future has not happened yet. Choose a line’s name under the chart to show or hide it, and type a year to average from that January onward.
| Month | Shiller PE | S&P 500 | S&P 500, next 5 years |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 2026 | 40.71 | 7,722.72 | — |
| Jan 2026 | 39.64 | 6,929.12 | — |
| Jan 2025 | 37.13 | 5,979.52 | — |
| Jan 2024 | 32.05 | 4,815.61 | — |
| Jan 2023 | 28.33 | 3,960.66 | — |
| Jan 2022 | 36.94 | 4,573.82 | — |
| Jan 2021 | 34.51 | 3,793.75 | +96.1% (14.4%/yr) |
| Jan 2020 | 30.99 | 3,278.20 | +97.0% (14.5%/yr) |
| Jan 2019 | 28.38 | 2,607.39 | +100.7% (14.9%/yr) |
| Jan 2018 | 33.31 | 2,789.80 | +54.7% (9.1%/yr) |
| Jan 2017 | 28.06 | 2,275.12 | +119.8% (17.1%/yr) |
| Jan 2016 | 24.21 | 1,918.60 | +117.8% (16.8%/yr) |
| Jan 2015 | 26.49 | 2,028.18 | +78.4% (12.3%/yr) |
| Jan 2014 | 24.86 | 1,822.36 | +58.0% (9.6%/yr) |
| Jan 2013 | 21.90 | 1,480.40 | +108.4% (15.8%/yr) |
| Jan 2012 | 21.21 | 1,300.58 | +93.7% (14.1%/yr) |
| Jan 2011 | 22.98 | 1,282.62 | +65.4% (10.6%/yr) |
| Jan 2010 | 20.53 | 1,123.58 | +99.4% (14.8%/yr) |
| Jan 2009 | 15.17 | 865.58 | +134.1% (18.5%/yr) |
| Jan 2008 | 24.02 | 1,378.76 | +20.0% (3.7%/yr) |
| Jan 2007 | 27.21 | 1,424.16 | +1.8% (0.4%/yr) |
| Jan 2006 | 26.47 | 1,278.73 | +11.6% (2.2%/yr) |
| Jan 2005 | 26.59 | 1,181.41 | +5.6% (1.1%/yr) |
| Jan 2004 | 27.66 | 1,132.52 | −15.9% (−3.4%/yr) |
| Jan 2003 | 22.90 | 895.84 | +67.9% (10.9%/yr) |
| Jan 2002 | 30.28 | 1,140.21 | +36.0% (6.4%/yr) |
| Jan 2001 | 36.98 | 1,335.63 | +3.8% (0.8%/yr) |
| Jan 2000 | 43.77 | 1,425.59 | −10.7% (−2.2%/yr) |
| Jan 1999 | 40.58 | 1,248.77 | −2.6% (−0.5%/yr) |
| Jan 1998 | 32.86 | 963.36 | −0.4% (−0.1%/yr) |
| Jan 1997 | 28.33 | 766.22 | +59.5% (9.8%/yr) |
| Jan 1996 | 24.76 | 614.42 | +134.8% (18.6%/yr) |
| Jan 1995 | 20.22 | 465.25 | +235.2% (27.4%/yr) |
| Jan 1994 | 21.41 | 472.99 | +193.4% (24.0%/yr) |
| Jan 1993 | 20.32 | 435.23 | +149.2% (20.0%/yr) |
| Jan 1992 | 19.77 | 416.08 | +109.9% (16.0%/yr) |
| Jan 1991 | 15.61 | 325.49 | +117.4% (16.8%/yr) |
| Jan 1990 | 17.05 | 339.97 | +59.3% (9.8%/yr) |
| Jan 1989 | 15.09 | 285.40 | +93.8% (14.1%/yr) |
| Jan 1988 | 13.90 | 250.50 | +104.6% (15.4%/yr) |
| Jan 1987 | 14.92 | 264.50 | +85.4% (13.1%/yr) |
| Jan 1986 | 11.71 | 208.20 | +84.6% (13.0%/yr) |
| Jan 1985 | 10.00 | 171.60 | +135.3% (18.7%/yr) |
| Jan 1984 | 9.89 | 166.40 | +106.5% (15.6%/yr) |
| Jan 1983 | 8.76 | 144.30 | +110.7% (16.1%/yr) |
| Jan 1982 | 7.39 | 117.30 | +180.9% (22.9%/yr) |
| Jan 1981 | 9.26 | 133.00 | +98.4% (14.7%/yr) |
| Jan 1980 | 8.85 | 110.90 | +97.8% (14.6%/yr) |
| Jan 1979 | 9.26 | 99.71 | +114.8% (16.5%/yr) |
| Jan 1978 | 9.24 | 90.25 | +107.4% (15.7%/yr) |
| Jan 1977 | 11.44 | 103.80 | +45.1% (7.7%/yr) |
| Jan 1976 | 11.19 | 96.86 | +73.9% (11.7%/yr) |
| Jan 1975 | 8.92 | 72.56 | +92.0% (13.9%/yr) |
| Jan 1974 | 13.53 | 96.11 | +29.4% (5.3%/yr) |
| Jan 1973 | 18.71 | 118.40 | −6.9% (−1.4%/yr) |
| Jan 1972 | 17.26 | 103.30 | +20.6% (3.8%/yr) |
| Jan 1971 | 16.46 | 93.49 | +23.6% (4.3%/yr) |
| Jan 1970 | 17.09 | 90.31 | −4.5% (−0.9%/yr) |
| Jan 1969 | 21.20 | 102.00 | +10.6% (2.0%/yr) |
| Jan 1968 | 21.51 | 95.04 | +46.2% (7.9%/yr) |
| Jan 1967 | 20.43 | 84.45 | +44.0% (7.6%/yr) |
| Jan 1966 | 24.06 | 93.32 | +18.3% (3.4%/yr) |
| Jan 1965 | 23.27 | 86.12 | +22.7% (4.2%/yr) |
| Jan 1964 | 21.63 | 76.45 | +55.7% (9.3%/yr) |
| Jan 1963 | 19.26 | 65.06 | +70.6% (11.3%/yr) |
| Jan 1962 | 21.20 | 69.07 | +43.1% (7.4%/yr) |
| Jan 1961 | 18.47 | 59.72 | +82.1% (12.7%/yr) |
| Jan 1960 | 18.34 | 58.03 | +73.8% (11.7%/yr) |
| Jan 1959 | 17.98 | 55.62 | +61.3% (10.0%/yr) |
| Jan 1958 | 13.79 | 41.12 | +86.8% (13.3%/yr) |
| Jan 1957 | 16.72 | 45.43 | +80.6% (12.6%/yr) |
| Jan 1956 | 18.29 | 44.15 | +62.1% (10.1%/yr) |
| Jan 1955 | 15.99 | 35.60 | +96.2% (14.4%/yr) |
| Jan 1954 | 12.00 | 25.46 | +167.6% (21.8%/yr) |
| Jan 1953 | 13.01 | 26.18 | +96.4% (14.4%/yr) |
| Jan 1952 | 12.53 | 24.19 | +139.1% (19.0%/yr) |
| Jan 1951 | 11.90 | 21.21 | +172.7% (22.2%/yr) |
| Jan 1950 | 10.75 | 16.88 | +184.6% (23.3%/yr) |
| Jan 1949 | 10.25 | 15.36 | +128.0% (17.9%/yr) |
| Jan 1948 | 10.42 | 14.83 | +142.4% (19.4%/yr) |
| Jan 1947 | 11.47 | 15.21 | +116.9% (16.8%/yr) |
| Jan 1946 | 15.62 | 18.02 | +56.6% (9.4%/yr) |
| Jan 1945 | 11.96 | 13.49 | +62.1% (10.1%/yr) |
| Jan 1944 | 11.05 | 11.85 | +65.0% (10.5%/yr) |
| Jan 1943 | 10.15 | 10.09 | +86.2% (13.2%/yr) |
| Jan 1942 | 10.10 | 8.93 | +120.6% (17.1%/yr) |
| Jan 1941 | 13.90 | 10.55 | +128.0% (17.9%/yr) |
| Jan 1940 | 16.38 | 12.30 | +49.1% (8.3%/yr) |
| Jan 1939 | 15.60 | 12.50 | +28.4% (5.1%/yr) |
| Jan 1938 | 13.51 | 11.31 | +21.8% (4.0%/yr) |
| Jan 1937 | 21.62 | 17.59 | −32.0% (−7.4%/yr) |
| Jan 1936 | 17.09 | 13.76 | −0.7% (−0.1%/yr) |
| Jan 1935 | 11.50 | 9.26 | +68.8% (11.0%/yr) |
| Jan 1934 | 13.03 | 10.54 | +50.7% (8.5%/yr) |
| Jan 1933 | 8.73 | 7.09 | +101.3% (15.0%/yr) |
| Jan 1932 | 9.31 | 8.30 | +178.1% (22.7%/yr) |
| Jan 1931 | 16.71 | 15.98 | +16.8% (3.2%/yr) |
| Jan 1930 | 22.31 | 21.71 | −41.8% (−10.2%/yr) |
| Jan 1929 | 27.08 | 24.86 | −42.7% (−10.5%/yr) |
| Jan 1928 | 18.81 | 17.53 | −46.0% (−11.6%/yr) |
| Jan 1927 | 13.19 | 13.40 | −21.0% (−4.6%/yr) |
| Jan 1926 | 11.34 | 12.65 | +58.1% (9.6%/yr) |
| Jan 1925 | 9.69 | 10.58 | +157.5% (20.8%/yr) |
| Jan 1924 | 8.07 | 8.83 | +261.4% (29.3%/yr) |
| Jan 1923 | 8.15 | 8.90 | +158.2% (20.9%/yr) |
| Jan 1922 | 6.29 | 7.30 | +143.1% (19.4%/yr) |
| Jan 1921 | 5.12 | 7.11 | +139.9% (19.1%/yr) |
| Jan 1920 | 5.99 | 8.83 | +63.9% (10.4%/yr) |
| Jan 1919 | 6.10 | 7.85 | +54.3% (9.1%/yr) |
| Jan 1918 | 6.64 | 7.21 | +72.7% (11.5%/yr) |
| Jan 1917 | 10.99 | 9.57 | +9.0% (1.7%/yr) |
| Jan 1916 | 12.54 | 9.33 | +7.1% (1.4%/yr) |
| Jan 1915 | 10.36 | 7.48 | +63.4% (10.3%/yr) |
| Jan 1914 | 11.64 | 8.37 | +29.1% (5.2%/yr) |
| Jan 1913 | 13.15 | 9.30 | +4.2% (0.8%/yr) |
| Jan 1912 | 13.79 | 9.12 | +37.1% (6.5%/yr) |
| Jan 1911 | 14.05 | 9.27 | +31.1% (5.6%/yr) |
| Jan 1910 | 14.55 | 10.08 | −3.5% (−0.7%/yr) |
| Jan 1909 | 14.76 | 9.06 | +18.7% (3.5%/yr) |
| Jan 1908 | 11.90 | 6.85 | +73.7% (11.7%/yr) |
| Jan 1907 | 17.22 | 9.56 | +22.8% (4.2%/yr) |
| Jan 1906 | 20.13 | 9.87 | +19.5% (3.6%/yr) |
| Jan 1905 | 18.46 | 8.43 | +50.0% (8.5%/yr) |
| Jan 1904 | 15.86 | 6.68 | +70.6% (11.3%/yr) |
| Jan 1903 | 20.32 | 8.46 | +1.4% (0.3%/yr) |
| Jan 1902 | 22.34 | 8.12 | +44.9% (7.7%/yr) |
| Jan 1901 | 20.98 | 7.07 | +71.9% (11.4%/yr) |
| Jan 1900 | 18.67 | 6.10 | +71.4% (11.4%/yr) |
| Jan 1899 | 22.93 | 6.08 | +34.5% (6.1%/yr) |
| Jan 1898 | 19.25 | 4.88 | +109.8% (16.0%/yr) |
| Jan 1897 | 17.03 | 4.22 | +133.2% (18.5%/yr) |
| Jan 1896 | 16.58 | 4.27 | +101.5% (15.0%/yr) |
| Jan 1895 | 16.52 | 4.25 | +74.9% (11.8%/yr) |
| Jan 1894 | 15.74 | 4.32 | +74.7% (11.8%/yr) |
| Jan 1893 | 17.66 | 5.61 | +9.7% (1.9%/yr) |
| Jan 1892 | 19.02 | 5.51 | −3.3% (−0.7%/yr) |
| Jan 1891 | 15.43 | 4.84 | +11.4% (2.2%/yr) |
| Jan 1890 | 17.22 | 5.38 | −0.4% (−0.1%/yr) |
| Jan 1889 | 15.80 | 5.24 | +3.0% (0.6%/yr) |
| Jan 1888 | 15.36 | 5.31 | +31.0% (5.5%/yr) |
| Jan 1887 | 17.51 | 5.58 | +22.6% (4.2%/yr) |
| Jan 1886 | 16.69 | 5.20 | +15.4% (2.9%/yr) |
| Jan 1885 | 13.13 | 4.24 | +59.8% (9.8%/yr) |
| Jan 1884 | 14.43 | 5.18 | +30.8% (5.5%/yr) |
| Jan 1883 | 15.27 | 5.81 | +19.7% (3.7%/yr) |
| Jan 1882 | 15.68 | 5.92 | +24.8% (4.5%/yr) |
| Jan 1881 | 18.47 | 6.19 | +11.8% (2.3%/yr) |
Monthly values. S&P 500 levels are Shiller’s monthly averages of daily closes, without dividends; the most recent month may use a single day’s close. On the log scale every doubling has the same height, so a 20% fall in 1900 looks as large as one today.
CAPE yield: stocks against bonds
A high Shiller PE is not the whole story: when bonds pay little after inflation, stocks can deserve a higher price. Turning the Shiller PE upside down gives the CAPE yield, the inflation-adjusted earnings a dollar in the S&P 500 buys (a Shiller PE of 25 is a 4% yield). Take away what a 10-year Treasury pays after inflation and what is left is Shiller’s excess CAPE yield: roughly how much more stocks are expected to earn than safe bonds each year over the next decade.
Earnings yield against the safe rate
| Month | CAPE yield | Real 10-year Treasury yield | Excess CAPE yield | S&P 500 | S&P 500, next 5 years |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 2026 | 2.46% | 1.90% | 0.56% | 7,722.72 | — |
| Jan 2026 | 2.52% | 0.99% | 1.53% | 6,929.12 | — |
| Jan 2025 | 2.69% | 1.51% | 1.18% | 5,979.52 | — |
| Jan 2024 | 3.12% | 1.26% | 1.86% | 4,815.61 | — |
| Jan 2023 | 3.53% | 0.88% | 2.65% | 3,960.66 | — |
| Jan 2022 | 2.71% | −0.42% | 3.12% | 4,573.82 | — |
| Jan 2021 | 2.90% | −0.66% | 3.55% | 3,793.75 | +96.1% (14.4%/yr) |
| Jan 2020 | 3.23% | 0.00% | 3.23% | 3,278.20 | +97.0% (14.5%/yr) |
| Jan 2019 | 3.52% | 0.94% | 2.59% | 2,607.39 | +100.7% (14.9%/yr) |
| Jan 2018 | 3.00% | 0.96% | 2.04% | 2,789.80 | +54.7% (9.1%/yr) |
| Jan 2017 | 3.56% | 0.59% | 2.97% | 2,275.12 | +119.8% (17.1%/yr) |
| Jan 2016 | 4.13% | 0.29% | 3.84% | 1,918.60 | +117.8% (16.8%/yr) |
| Jan 2015 | 3.77% | −0.17% | 3.95% | 2,028.18 | +78.4% (12.3%/yr) |
| Jan 2014 | 4.02% | 0.50% | 3.53% | 1,822.36 | +58.0% (9.6%/yr) |
| Jan 2013 | 4.57% | −0.49% | 5.05% | 1,480.40 | +108.4% (15.8%/yr) |
| Jan 2012 | 4.71% | −0.53% | 5.24% | 1,300.58 | +93.7% (14.1%/yr) |
| Jan 2011 | 4.35% | 1.07% | 3.28% | 1,282.62 | +65.4% (10.6%/yr) |
| Jan 2010 | 4.87% | 1.20% | 3.67% | 1,123.58 | +99.4% (14.8%/yr) |
| Jan 2009 | 6.59% | −0.02% | 6.61% | 865.58 | +134.1% (18.5%/yr) |
| Jan 2008 | 4.16% | 1.03% | 3.13% | 1,378.76 | +20.0% (3.7%/yr) |
| Jan 2007 | 3.68% | 2.32% | 1.35% | 1,424.16 | +1.8% (0.4%/yr) |
| Jan 2006 | 3.78% | 1.89% | 1.89% | 1,278.73 | +11.6% (2.2%/yr) |
| Jan 2005 | 3.76% | 1.81% | 1.95% | 1,181.41 | +5.6% (1.1%/yr) |
| Jan 2004 | 3.62% | 1.76% | 1.86% | 1,132.52 | −15.9% (−3.4%/yr) |
| Jan 2003 | 4.37% | 1.60% | 2.77% | 895.84 | +67.9% (10.9%/yr) |
| Jan 2002 | 3.30% | 2.52% | 0.78% | 1,140.21 | +36.0% (6.4%/yr) |
| Jan 2001 | 2.70% | 2.49% | 0.21% | 1,335.63 | +3.8% (0.8%/yr) |
| Jan 2000 | 2.28% | 3.81% | −1.52% | 1,425.59 | −10.7% (−2.2%/yr) |
| Jan 1999 | 2.46% | 1.62% | 0.84% | 1,248.77 | −2.6% (−0.5%/yr) |
| Jan 1998 | 3.04% | 2.14% | 0.90% | 963.36 | −0.4% (−0.1%/yr) |
| Jan 1997 | 3.53% | 2.93% | 0.60% | 766.22 | +59.5% (9.8%/yr) |
| Jan 1996 | 4.04% | 2.16% | 1.87% | 614.42 | +134.8% (18.6%/yr) |
| Jan 1995 | 4.95% | 4.18% | 0.77% | 465.25 | +235.2% (27.4%/yr) |
| Jan 1994 | 4.67% | 2.07% | 2.60% | 472.99 | +193.4% (24.0%/yr) |
| Jan 1993 | 4.92% | 2.76% | 2.16% | 435.23 | +149.2% (20.0%/yr) |
| Jan 1992 | 5.06% | 3.14% | 1.92% | 416.08 | +109.9% (16.0%/yr) |
| Jan 1991 | 6.41% | 3.63% | 2.78% | 325.49 | +117.4% (16.8%/yr) |
| Jan 1990 | 5.87% | 3.15% | 2.71% | 339.97 | +59.3% (9.8%/yr) |
| Jan 1989 | 6.63% | 3.20% | 3.43% | 285.40 | +93.8% (14.1%/yr) |
| Jan 1988 | 7.20% | 2.32% | 4.88% | 250.50 | +104.6% (15.4%/yr) |
| Jan 1987 | 6.70% | 0.45% | 6.26% | 264.50 | +85.4% (13.1%/yr) |
| Jan 1986 | 8.54% | 2.17% | 6.37% | 208.20 | +84.6% (13.0%/yr) |
| Jan 1985 | 10.00% | 4.07% | 5.93% | 171.60 | +135.3% (18.7%/yr) |
| Jan 1984 | 10.11% | 3.53% | 6.57% | 166.40 | +106.5% (15.6%/yr) |
| Jan 1983 | 11.42% | 1.79% | 9.63% | 144.30 | +110.7% (16.1%/yr) |
| Jan 1982 | 13.53% | 5.93% | 7.60% | 117.30 | +180.9% (22.9%/yr) |
| Jan 1981 | 10.80% | 4.44% | 6.36% | 133.00 | +98.4% (14.7%/yr) |
| Jan 1980 | 11.30% | 3.31% | 7.98% | 110.90 | +97.8% (14.6%/yr) |
| Jan 1979 | 10.80% | 2.37% | 8.43% | 99.71 | +114.8% (16.5%/yr) |
| Jan 1978 | 10.82% | 1.71% | 9.11% | 90.25 | +107.4% (15.7%/yr) |
| Jan 1977 | 8.74% | 1.29% | 7.46% | 103.80 | +45.1% (7.7%/yr) |
| Jan 1976 | 8.94% | 1.99% | 6.95% | 96.86 | +73.9% (11.7%/yr) |
| Jan 1975 | 11.21% | 2.24% | 8.97% | 72.56 | +92.0% (13.9%/yr) |
| Jan 1974 | 7.39% | 2.80% | 4.59% | 96.11 | +29.4% (5.3%/yr) |
| Jan 1973 | 5.34% | 3.03% | 2.32% | 118.40 | −6.9% (−1.4%/yr) |
| Jan 1972 | 5.79% | 2.75% | 3.04% | 103.30 | +20.6% (3.8%/yr) |
| Jan 1971 | 6.07% | 3.30% | 2.77% | 93.49 | +23.6% (4.3%/yr) |
| Jan 1970 | 5.85% | 5.21% | 0.64% | 90.31 | −4.5% (−0.9%/yr) |
| Jan 1969 | 4.72% | 3.97% | 0.75% | 102.00 | +10.6% (2.0%/yr) |
| Jan 1968 | 4.65% | 3.76% | 0.89% | 95.04 | +46.2% (7.9%/yr) |
| Jan 1967 | 4.89% | 2.81% | 2.09% | 84.45 | +44.0% (7.6%/yr) |
| Jan 1966 | 4.16% | 2.88% | 1.27% | 93.32 | +18.3% (3.4%/yr) |
| Jan 1965 | 4.30% | 2.62% | 1.68% | 86.12 | +22.7% (4.2%/yr) |
| Jan 1964 | 4.62% | 2.77% | 1.85% | 76.45 | +55.7% (9.3%/yr) |
| Jan 1963 | 5.19% | 2.49% | 2.71% | 65.06 | +70.6% (11.3%/yr) |
| Jan 1962 | 4.72% | 2.83% | 1.89% | 69.07 | +43.1% (7.4%/yr) |
| Jan 1961 | 5.41% | 2.23% | 3.18% | 59.72 | +82.1% (12.7%/yr) |
| Jan 1960 | 5.45% | 2.49% | 2.96% | 58.03 | +73.8% (11.7%/yr) |
| Jan 1959 | 5.56% | 2.11% | 3.45% | 55.62 | +61.3% (10.0%/yr) |
| Jan 1958 | 7.25% | 1.19% | 6.06% | 41.12 | +86.8% (13.3%/yr) |
| Jan 1957 | 5.98% | 0.93% | 5.05% | 45.43 | +80.6% (12.6%/yr) |
| Jan 1956 | 5.47% | −1.05% | 6.51% | 44.15 | +62.1% (10.1%/yr) |
| Jan 1955 | 6.25% | −1.53% | 7.78% | 35.60 | +96.2% (14.4%/yr) |
| Jan 1954 | 8.33% | −1.97% | 10.30% | 25.46 | +167.6% (21.8%/yr) |
| Jan 1953 | 7.69% | −1.81% | 9.50% | 26.18 | +96.4% (14.4%/yr) |
| Jan 1952 | 7.98% | −2.69% | 10.68% | 24.19 | +139.1% (19.0%/yr) |
| Jan 1951 | 8.41% | −3.49% | 11.90% | 21.21 | +172.7% (22.2%/yr) |
| Jan 1950 | 9.31% | −3.07% | 12.38% | 16.88 | +184.6% (23.3%/yr) |
| Jan 1949 | 9.76% | −3.23% | 12.99% | 15.36 | +128.0% (17.9%/yr) |
| Jan 1948 | 9.60% | −2.82% | 12.41% | 14.83 | +142.4% (19.4%/yr) |
| Jan 1947 | 8.72% | −2.06% | 10.78% | 15.21 | +116.9% (16.8%/yr) |
| Jan 1946 | 6.40% | −0.62% | 7.02% | 18.02 | +56.6% (9.4%/yr) |
| Jan 1945 | 8.36% | −0.36% | 8.72% | 13.49 | +62.1% (10.1%/yr) |
| Jan 1944 | 9.05% | −0.32% | 9.37% | 11.85 | +65.0% (10.5%/yr) |
| Jan 1943 | 9.85% | −0.27% | 10.12% | 10.09 | +86.2% (13.2%/yr) |
| Jan 1942 | 9.90% | 1.52% | 8.38% | 8.93 | +120.6% (17.1%/yr) |
| Jan 1941 | 7.19% | 3.14% | 4.05% | 10.55 | +128.0% (17.9%/yr) |
| Jan 1940 | 6.11% | 4.26% | 1.85% | 12.30 | +49.1% (8.3%/yr) |
| Jan 1939 | 6.41% | 4.34% | 2.07% | 12.50 | +28.4% (5.1%/yr) |
| Jan 1938 | 7.40% | 4.52% | 2.89% | 11.31 | +21.8% (4.0%/yr) |
| Jan 1937 | 4.63% | 4.82% | −0.19% | 17.59 | −32.0% (−7.4%/yr) |
| Jan 1936 | 5.85% | 5.22% | 0.63% | 13.76 | −0.7% (−0.1%/yr) |
| Jan 1935 | 8.70% | 5.17% | 3.53% | 9.26 | +68.8% (11.0%/yr) |
| Jan 1934 | 7.68% | 5.79% | 1.89% | 10.54 | +50.7% (8.5%/yr) |
| Jan 1933 | 11.46% | 5.92% | 5.54% | 7.09 | +101.3% (15.0%/yr) |
| Jan 1932 | 10.74% | 5.34% | 5.40% | 8.30 | +178.1% (22.7%/yr) |
| Jan 1931 | 5.99% | 5.11% | 0.88% | 15.98 | +16.8% (3.2%/yr) |
| Jan 1930 | 4.48% | 4.49% | −0.01% | 21.71 | −41.8% (−10.2%/yr) |
| Jan 1929 | 3.69% | 3.24% | 0.45% | 24.86 | −42.7% (−10.5%/yr) |
| Jan 1928 | 5.32% | 1.19% | 4.13% | 17.53 | −46.0% (−11.6%/yr) |
| Jan 1927 | 7.58% | −0.77% | 8.35% | 13.40 | −21.0% (−4.6%/yr) |
| Jan 1926 | 8.82% | −1.90% | 10.72% | 12.65 | +58.1% (9.6%/yr) |
| Jan 1925 | 10.32% | −1.67% | 11.99% | 10.58 | +157.5% (20.8%/yr) |
| Jan 1924 | 12.39% | −1.57% | 13.96% | 8.83 | +261.4% (29.3%/yr) |
| Jan 1923 | 12.26% | −1.18% | 13.44% | 8.90 | +158.2% (20.9%/yr) |
| Jan 1922 | 15.91% | −2.05% | 17.95% | 7.30 | +143.1% (19.4%/yr) |
| Jan 1921 | 19.52% | −2.40% | 21.92% | 7.11 | +139.9% (19.1%/yr) |
| Jan 1920 | 16.70% | −1.94% | 18.63% | 8.83 | +63.9% (10.4%/yr) |
| Jan 1919 | 16.40% | −1.82% | 18.21% | 7.85 | +54.3% (9.1%/yr) |
| Jan 1918 | 15.06% | −0.35% | 15.41% | 7.21 | +72.7% (11.5%/yr) |
| Jan 1917 | 9.10% | 1.40% | 7.70% | 9.57 | +9.0% (1.7%/yr) |
| Jan 1916 | 7.97% | 1.97% | 6.00% | 9.33 | +7.1% (1.4%/yr) |
| Jan 1915 | 9.65% | 2.46% | 7.19% | 7.48 | +63.4% (10.3%/yr) |
| Jan 1914 | 8.59% | 2.25% | 6.34% | 8.37 | +29.1% (5.2%/yr) |
| Jan 1913 | 7.61% | 3.20% | 4.40% | 9.30 | +4.2% (0.8%/yr) |
| Jan 1912 | 7.25% | 2.54% | 4.70% | 9.12 | +37.1% (6.5%/yr) |
| Jan 1911 | 7.12% | 2.16% | 4.96% | 9.27 | +31.1% (5.6%/yr) |
| Jan 1910 | 6.87% | 1.63% | 5.24% | 10.08 | −3.5% (−0.7%/yr) |
| Jan 1909 | 6.77% | 0.91% | 5.86% | 9.06 | +18.7% (3.5%/yr) |
| Jan 1908 | 8.40% | 1.21% | 7.19% | 6.85 | +73.7% (11.7%/yr) |
| Jan 1907 | 5.81% | 0.49% | 5.32% | 9.56 | +22.8% (4.2%/yr) |
| Jan 1906 | 4.97% | 1.00% | 3.97% | 9.87 | +19.5% (3.6%/yr) |
| Jan 1905 | 5.42% | 0.90% | 4.52% | 8.43 | +50.0% (8.5%/yr) |
| Jan 1904 | 6.30% | 1.49% | 4.81% | 6.68 | +70.6% (11.3%/yr) |
| Jan 1903 | 4.92% | 2.38% | 2.55% | 8.46 | +1.4% (0.3%/yr) |
| Jan 1902 | 4.48% | 2.43% | 2.05% | 8.12 | +44.9% (7.7%/yr) |
| Jan 1901 | 4.77% | 3.22% | 1.54% | 7.07 | +71.9% (11.4%/yr) |
| Jan 1900 | 5.35% | 2.78% | 2.57% | 6.10 | +71.4% (11.4%/yr) |
| Jan 1899 | 4.36% | 4.77% | −0.41% | 6.08 | +34.5% (6.1%/yr) |
| Jan 1898 | 5.20% | 5.61% | −0.42% | 4.88 | +109.8% (16.0%/yr) |
| Jan 1897 | 5.87% | 5.49% | 0.38% | 4.22 | +133.2% (18.5%/yr) |
| Jan 1896 | 6.03% | 5.41% | 0.63% | 4.27 | +101.5% (15.0%/yr) |
| Jan 1895 | 6.05% | 5.75% | 0.30% | 4.25 | +74.9% (11.8%/yr) |
| Jan 1894 | 6.35% | 6.64% | −0.28% | 4.32 | +74.7% (11.8%/yr) |
| Jan 1893 | 5.66% | 6.07% | −0.41% | 5.61 | +9.7% (1.9%/yr) |
| Jan 1892 | 5.26% | 6.84% | −1.58% | 5.51 | −3.3% (−0.7%/yr) |
| Jan 1891 | 6.48% | 5.49% | 0.99% | 4.84 | +11.4% (2.2%/yr) |
| Jan 1890 | 5.81% | 6.10% | −0.30% | 5.38 | −0.4% (−0.1%/yr) |
| Jan 1889 | 6.33% | 3.80% | 2.53% | 5.24 | +3.0% (0.6%/yr) |
| Jan 1888 | 6.51% | 4.64% | 1.87% | 5.31 | +31.0% (5.5%/yr) |
| Jan 1887 | 5.71% | 6.61% | −0.90% | 5.58 | +22.6% (4.2%/yr) |
| Jan 1886 | 5.99% | 6.38% | −0.39% | 5.20 | +15.4% (2.9%/yr) |
| Jan 1885 | 7.62% | 6.77% | 0.85% | 4.24 | +59.8% (9.8%/yr) |
| Jan 1884 | 6.93% | 6.51% | 0.42% | 5.18 | +30.8% (5.5%/yr) |
| Jan 1883 | 6.55% | 6.18% | 0.36% | 5.81 | +19.7% (3.7%/yr) |
| Jan 1882 | 6.38% | 5.77% | 0.61% | 5.92 | +24.8% (4.5%/yr) |
| Jan 1881 | 5.41% | 6.46% | −1.05% | 6.19 | +11.8% (2.3%/yr) |
The faint grey line behind is the S&P 500 on its own logarithmic scale with no axis, so read its shape, not its height against the percentages: every doubling has the same height, so a 20% fall in 1900 looks as large as one today. Point at a month to see what the S&P 500 returned over the following five years, with dividends reinvested and before inflation (the table below is after inflation); the last five years show a dash. Prices are Shiller’s monthly averages of daily closes.
What the chart shows
Cheap markets had a wide gap. The excess CAPE yield was 10% or more in 1917–1926, 1932, 1942–1943, 1946–1954 and 1982, usually after a crash, a war or a long bout of inflation had pushed prices down. Stocks bought then went on to earn a median 14.2% a year after inflation over the next ten years. The widest gap was 23.5% in Dec 1920.
Expensive markets had none. It fell below zero, meaning bonds promised more than the stock market’s earnings, in 1881, 1883, 1885–1887, 1890–1894, 1897–1899, 1929–1930, 1936–1937 and 1999–2000. The lowest was −2.58% in Jun 1892, when deflation lifted real bond yields; in the dot-com boom it reached −1.52% in Jan 2000. Stocks bought when it was negative returned a median 4.6% a year over the next decade and trailed the starting bond yield in 72% of those months.
The gap, not the price alone, has lined up with what came next. Across every month since 1881 with ten years of results, the excess CAPE yield had a correlation of 0.74 with how far stocks went on to beat the starting real bond yield (1 is a perfect match; 0 is none). It does not time the market: the gap can stay narrow for years, as it did through the late 1990s while the grey S&P 500 line kept climbing.
Today the gap is 0.55%. That is below its 4.58% average, because the CAPE yield is 2.43% and bonds pay 1.88% after inflation. From 2012 to 2021, when low rates were the usual defence of a high Shiller PE, the real Treasury yield averaged 0.09%; at 1.88% it is higher now, so that defence is weaker.
What followed, by starting excess CAPE yield
| Starting excess CAPE yield | Months | Stocks, a year | Beat bonds by | Bonds won |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Below 0% | 120 | 4.6% | −1.7% | 72% |
| 0% to 2% · today | 423 | 5.2% | 0.7% | 43% |
| 2% to 4% | 350 | 5.8% | 3.0% | 21% |
| 4% to 6% | 219 | 6.1% | 3.8% | 29% |
| 6% to 8% | 187 | 8.1% | 5.7% | 13% |
| 8% to 10% | 123 | 10.7% | 9.5% | 0% |
| 10% or more | 208 | 14.2% | 16.3% | 0% |
Medians of the annual return after inflation, with dividends reinvested, over the ten years after each month from Jan 1881 to Oct 2016. “Beat bonds by” subtracts the real 10-year Treasury yield of the starting month, the return a buyer could have locked in; “Bonds won” is the share of months where that yield came out ahead.
Shiller subtracts the past ten years’ inflation from the 10-year Treasury yield to estimate its real yield, because inflation-protected Treasuries (TIPS) only exist since 1997. Market expectations of inflation can differ from the last decade’s, so the real yield here can differ from today’s TIPS yield. The CAPE yield is already after inflation: company earnings tend to rise with prices. The Treasury yield is FRED’s daily 10-year rate for Oct 8, 2026; earlier months use Shiller’s monthly averages.
What today’s price implies
Since Jan 1881, U.S. stocks have returned 6.7% a year after inflation, with dividends reinvested. That return came from three places: about 4.3% a year in cash paid to shareholders, mostly dividends; 1.9% a year of growth in inflation-adjusted earnings; and 0.5% a year from investors paying more for those earnings, as the Shiller PE rose from 18.47 to 40.71.
Cash comes out of earnings, so the more investors pay for each dollar of earnings, the less cash each dollar invested receives. At the average Shiller PE since 1881, 17.80, that cash was about 4.3% of the price. At today’s 41.17, the same share of earnings is about 1.8%. For today’s price to add up, at least one of three things has to be true:
1. Earnings grow much faster
To repeat the 6.7% a year earned since 1881 without the multiple rising further, inflation-adjusted earnings would have to grow 4.9% a year for decades, 2.5 times their pace since 1881. The last 30 years grew 4.1% a year; the fastest 30-year stretch since 1881 grew 4.2%. No 20- or 30-year stretch since 1881 has reached 4.9%. The case for this rests on lasting change: wider profit margins, lower interest and tax costs, and capital-light businesses such as software and AI.
2. Investors accept lower returns
If earnings keep growing 1.9% a year and the Shiller PE stays at 41.17, stocks return about 3.8% a year after inflation: 1.8% in cash plus 1.9% of growth. That is a smaller reward for the risk of owning stocks. Shiller measures that reward as the excess CAPE yield: the earnings yield (1 ÷ Shiller PE, 2.43%) minus the 10-year Treasury yield after inflation (5.22% less 3.34% average inflation over the past ten years, or 1.88%). It is 0.55%, against an average of 4.58% since 1881; only 12.9% of months since 1881 had a lower one.
3. The multiple falls back
If neither faster growth nor lower returns lasts, prices adjust instead. Falling back to the mean since 1881 over ten years would take about 8.0% a year off returns, more than cash and growth add. In history, the 57 months since 1881 that began with a Shiller PE of 30 or more (1929 and 1997–2002) were followed by a median −1.1% a year over the next ten years. The best was 4.5%.
Real return over the next ten years, by where the Shiller PE ends up
| Shiller PE in ten years | Level | A year | Over ten years |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stays at today’s level | 41.17 | 3.8% | 45% |
| Mean since 1881 | 17.80 | −4.3% | −35% |
| Median since 1881 | 16.61 | −4.9% | −40% |
| Mean since 1990 | 27.35 | −0.3% | −3% |
Starts at today’s 41.17. Cash and earnings growth stay at the rates above, measured since 1881.
What followed in history
| Starting Shiller PE | Months | Median | Worst | Best |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–10 | 229 | 11.0% | 1.8% | 20.0% |
| 10–15 | 461 | 7.8% | −4.2% | 17.6% |
| 15–20 | 514 | 6.2% | −4.6% | 16.1% |
| 20–25 | 260 | 4.9% | −4.0% | 14.2% |
| 25–30 | 109 | 5.6% | −1.2% | 11.8% |
| 30 or more · today | 57 | −1.1% | −5.9% | 4.5% |
Annual return after inflation, with dividends reinvested, over the ten years after each month from Jan 1881 to Oct 2016, the latest start with ten years of results. 18 of those months, in 1999–2000, started at or above 41.17.
These figures are arithmetic, not forecasts. They treat returns as the sum of cash, earnings growth and the change in the multiple, and assume companies keep paying out the same share of earnings as their average since 1881, counting buybacks as cash. A ten-year earnings average lags when profits grow fast, which raises the Shiller PE on its own. The Treasury yield is FRED’s daily 10-year rate for Oct 8, 2026. Everything here is recomputed from Shiller’s latest dataset, the live S&P 500 level and that yield each time the page loads.
What the Shiller PE measures
A price-to-earnings ratio compares what investors pay for the S&P 500 with the profits its companies earn. One year of profits can be misleading: earnings collapse in recessions and swell in booms, which makes an ordinary PE jump around. Economist Robert Shiller smoothed this out by using the average of the past ten years of earnings, after adjusting each year for inflation. The result is called the cyclically adjusted price-to-earnings ratio (CAPE), the Shiller PE or PE10.
Shiller PE = S&P 500 price ÷ average inflation-adjusted earnings over the previous 10 years.
A reading of 30 means investors are paying $30 for every $1 of average annual earnings over the last decade. Higher readings have historically been followed by lower average returns over the next ten to twenty years, but the ratio says little about the next month or year. It has been above its long-run average in nearly every month since 1990. Changes in accounting rules, tax rates, share buybacks and the mix of companies in the index all affect comparisons with earlier eras.
Sources & update policy
Monthly values, prices and the ten-year earnings average come from Robert Shiller’s U.S. stock market dataset, published alongside his book Irrational Exuberance. The site checks for a new release once a day and keeps a saved copy, so the page loads without waiting on Shiller’s site; Shiller typically updates it monthly. If the file cannot be read or no longer reconciles, the page shows a reviewed snapshot and says so.
The live estimate divides the S&P 500 index level (Yahoo Finance public delayed data, as of when this page was loaded) by the ten-year real earnings average implied by Shiller’s latest month. That average stays fixed until his next release, and it is not adjusted for inflation since that month. Other sites, including multpl.com, may use more recent earnings estimates and show a slightly different live value.
The 10-year Treasury yield is the daily constant-maturity rate from FRED, the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, checked hourly; latest Oct 8, 2026. Ten-year returns, earnings growth, past inflation, the CAPE yield, the real Treasury yield and the excess CAPE yield come from Shiller’s dataset and follow his definitions; earlier months use his monthly Treasury averages.
Not investment advice
Historical valuation data for education only. Neither this site nor Robert Shiller guarantees its accuracy or completeness, and it may be delayed.